{"id":50125,"date":"2026-06-26T15:25:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T15:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/hsbc-endonezyada-buyume-yavaslarken-ve-2026da-enflasyon-yukselirken-rupiah-kaynakli-risklere-dikkat-cekti\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T15:25:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T15:25:08","slug":"hsbc-endonezyada-buyume-yavaslarken-ve-2026da-enflasyon-yukselirken-rupiah-kaynakli-risklere-dikkat-cekti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/hsbc-endonezyada-buyume-yavaslarken-ve-2026da-enflasyon-yukselirken-rupiah-kaynakli-risklere-dikkat-cekti\/","title":{"rendered":"HSBC, Endonezya\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcme yava\u015flarken ve 2026\u2019da enflasyon y\u00fckselirken rupiah kaynakl\u0131 risklere dikkat \u00e7ekti"},"content":{"rendered":"

HSBC stratejistleri, Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n GSYH ve enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funu ancak bir enerji \u015fokunun faaliyetler ve \u00f6demeler dengesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savundu. Perakende harcamalar, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ve ihracat sipari\u015flerindeki gerilemeler dahil son g\u00f6stergeler ivmenin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Mali harcamalar\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ekildi\u011fini belirten stratejistler, bunun otoritelerin %3\u2019l\u00fck mali kural tavan\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamak istemesi nedeniyle y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6neminde daha s\u0131k\u0131 ko\u015fullara i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Stratejistler, 2026\u2019da y\u0131ll\u0131k GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 2025\u2019teki %5,1\u2019den %4,7\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, enflasyonun 2026\u2019da ortalama %3,5 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini; 2025\u2019te ise %1,9 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. PMI girdi fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi ve bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Stratejistler, rupiah\u2019taki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015f hesaplarla ili\u015fkilendirerek, \u00f6demeler dengesinin 2026\u2019da \u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci kez y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k verece\u011fini bekliyor. 2025\u2019te cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n GSYH\u2019nin -%0,1\u2019i d\u00fczeyinde oldu\u011funa, sermaye giri\u015flerinin ise GSYH\u2019nin -%0,3\u2019\u00fcne i\u015faret ederek, \u015firketlerin nakit tuttu\u011funu ancak yat\u0131r\u0131m konusunda isteksiz kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Para Birimi Zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Piyasa Stratejileri<\/h3>\n

Endonezya rupiah\u2019\u0131ndaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131, zay\u0131f bir \u00f6demeler dengesi taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenen izlenmesi gereken ba\u015fl\u0131ca konu olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. IDR, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda son d\u00f6nemde 16.500 seviyesini a\u015farak zay\u0131f sermaye giri\u015flerini yans\u0131tt\u0131. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, s\u00fcregelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/IDR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak kurda ilave zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeli.<\/p>\n

Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve t\u00fcketici g\u00fcvenindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle belirginle\u015fen ekonomideki yava\u015flama, Endonezya hisse senetleri i\u00e7in olumsuz bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Endonezya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni anketi, 115,5\u2019e gerileyerek y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu da hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131nda temkinlili\u011fe i\u015faret ediyor. Bunun, olas\u0131 bir piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla Jakarta Bile\u015fik Endeksi (JCI) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz.<\/p>\n

Enflasyon G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ve Yat\u0131r\u0131m Endi\u015feleri<\/h3>\n

Enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesinin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesiyle, merkez bankas\u0131 \u00fczerinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Son enflasyon verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi; zay\u0131f kur da fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131racakt\u0131r. 2018\u2019deki geli\u015fen piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 and\u0131ran bu ortam, daha y\u00fcksek faizlere oynayan faiz swaplar\u0131n\u0131 cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n

Temel sorun, \u015firketler y\u00fcksek miktarda nakit tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen yat\u0131r\u0131m eksikli\u011fi. 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin Do\u011frudan Yabanc\u0131 Yat\u0131r\u0131m (DYY) verileri bu e\u011filimi teyit ederek bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla %15 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Bu, ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici bir \u015fok de\u011fil daha kal\u0131c\u0131 bir sorun oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara y\u00f6nelik temkinli duru\u015fumuzu g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

HSBC uyard\u0131: Endonezya\u2019da enerji \u015foku ve zay\u0131flayan g\u00f6stergeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi so\u011futuyor. 2026 b\u00fcy\u00fcme %4,7\u2019ye, enflasyon %3,5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Rupiah bask\u0131da; cari a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00fcrer, opsiyon\/korunma \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50124,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50125"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50125\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50124"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}