EUR\/USD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,1325\u2019teki 13 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinden toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yeniden 1,1400 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Daha zay\u0131f ABD Dolar\u0131 ile d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ortak etkisi, genel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi yerinde kalsa da tek para birimini destekledi. Brent petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 73,00 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na gerileyerek sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc; haftal\u0131k bazda %9, son alt\u0131 haftada ise %30\u2019dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fme, petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomileri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 azalt\u0131rken risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 da iyile\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, daha ucuz enerji, ECB\u2019nin ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak eurodaki olas\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. ECB anketi, t\u00fcketicilerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7in enflasyon beklentisini 4,0%\u2019ten 3,5%\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterirken, kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar orta vadede GSYH\u2019nin daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu tablo daha temkinli bir para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu te\u015fvik edebilir. ABD\u2019de ise dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veriler ve artan Fed faiz beklentileriyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda PCE Fiyat Endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1 artarak \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisi ise ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD paritesinin, 1,0780 civar\u0131ndaki y\u0131l i\u00e7i diplerden gelen son toparlanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 1,0850 \u00fczerinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Brent petrol\u00fcn 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinden varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar civar\u0131na gerilemesi, k\u0131tan\u0131n enerji ithalat maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in euroya ge\u00e7ici bir nefes alan\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Petroldeki bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u015fimdilik para birimi i\u00e7in k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir taban olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak, bu euro g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funa ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n zor g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne inan\u0131yoruz. Eurostat\u2019\u0131n son verileri Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyonunun %2,3\u2019e so\u011fudu\u011funu ve 1\u00c7 GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin zay\u0131f %0,1 seviyesinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) bir \u201cbekle-g\u00f6r\u201d sinyali veriyor. Bu da euronun kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli potansiyeli \u00fczerinde belirgin bir tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arada, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki son geri \u00e7ekilme yeni bir trendden ziyade bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Son ABD istihdam raporu May\u0131s ay\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc 210 bin yeni istihdama i\u015faret ederken, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,1 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kalmas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz indirimlerini g\u00fcndemine almas\u0131 i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Yava\u015flayan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ile diren\u00e7li ABD ekonomisi aras\u0131ndaki bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde yeniden belirleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan faydalanan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. EUR\/USD\u2019de vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc put spread pozisyonlar\u0131, 1,0780 diplerine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almak i\u00e7in etkili y\u00f6ntemler olabilir. Volatilite g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor; bu da tan\u0131ml\u0131 riskli stratejileri daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar 2022-2024 d\u00f6nemindeki inat\u00e7\u0131 ABD enflasyonunu h\u00e2l\u00e2 hat\u0131rl\u0131yor; bu da kal\u0131c\u0131 fiyat bask\u0131lar\u0131na dair ilk i\u015farette piyasan\u0131n \u201c\u015fahin Fed\u201d s\u00f6ylemine h\u0131zla inanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu tarihsel \u00f6rnek, dolar zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Euro ise yava\u015flayan bir ekonomi ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc tamamlam\u0131\u015f bir merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirgin kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2rlarla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n