Ham Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi; ABD g\u00f6stergesi West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 69,65 dolardan i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek 27 \u015eubat\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. S\u00f6zle\u015fme haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131smen yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu arz\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131 beklentileri, Bat\u0131\u2019daki tatil d\u00f6nemine ba\u011fl\u0131 mevsimsel t\u00fcketimdeki g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fi g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131; fiyatlar May\u0131s sonundan bu yana %30\u2019dan fazla geriledi.<\/p>\n
ABD Enerji Bakan\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varilin bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7ti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi; ancak yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 aya yak\u0131n s\u00fcren kapanma nedeniyle tam normalle\u015fmenin haftalar alabilece\u011fini belirtti. Ayr\u0131ca ABD y\u00f6netimi alt\u0131ndaki Venezuela petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2029\u2019da Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6rev s\u00fcresi sonunda iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini ifade ederek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi. Piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, K\u00f6rfez \u00fcreticilerinden daha y\u00fcksek \u00fcretim beklentilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ate\u015fkes d\u00f6neminde ABD k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesinin ard\u0131ndan ilave \u0130ran arz\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da yans\u0131t\u0131rken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar azalm\u0131\u015f k\u00fcresel petrol stoklar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir yeniden in\u015fa bekliyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s sonundan bu yana ya\u015fanan sert %30\u2019luk fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bask\u0131n piyasa etkisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 ve ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varil ile sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn bildirilmesi, piyasay\u0131 arz endi\u015felerinin \u015fimdilik ortadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna etti. Yak\u0131n vadeli opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite h\u00e2l\u00e2 yakla\u015f\u0131k %45 ile y\u00fcksek olmakla birlikte geriliyor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesini bekledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ve Venezuela\u2019dan gelecek ilave varillerin hen\u00fcz tamamen fiyatlara yans\u0131mad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Mevcut tahminler, gelecek \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fcresel arza toplamda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,5 milyon varil eklenebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; bu durum, olas\u0131 bir toparlanmaya kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor. Bu arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, ABD ve Avrupa\u2019daki yaz tatillerinin destekledi\u011fi mevsimsel talep y\u00fckseli\u015fini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Son veriler, ABD\u2019de benzin talebinin ge\u00e7en hafta %3 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ancak piyasaya gelen yeni arz\u0131 absorbe etmeye yetmedi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrev i\u015flem yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n avantaj\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmeden faydalanmak i\u00e7in 65 ve 60 dolar kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
75 dolar diren\u00e7 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) kredi spread sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir di\u011fer strateji. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek opsiyon primlerinden yararlan\u0131r ve WTI\u2019da ani ve sert bir ralli ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece k\u00e2r sa\u011flar. Bununla birlikte ate\u015fkes g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri veya H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019e ili\u015fkin olumsuz haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fiddetli bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na neden olabilece\u011finden, bu pozisyonlar\u0131n dikkatle y\u00f6netilmesi gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
Daha ileriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k kapanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul ediyoruz. Tahminen 400 milyon varil gerileyen stratejik rezervlerin yeniden doldurulmas\u0131 s\u00fcreci, nihayetinde fiyatlar i\u00e7in bir taban olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, piyasan\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczeltme yapm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek vadeli daha uzun vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 temkinli bi\u00e7imde de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n