{"id":50095,"date":"2026-06-26T13:53:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:53:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/usd-cad-abd-pce-verisinin-beklentilerden-yumusak-gelmesiyle-ve-fedin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasiyla-gerilerken-bocnin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T13:53:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T13:53:58","slug":"usd-cad-abd-pce-verisinin-beklentilerden-yumusak-gelmesiyle-ve-fedin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasiyla-gerilerken-bocnin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-cad-abd-pce-verisinin-beklentilerden-yumusak-gelmesiyle-ve-fedin-faiz-artirimi-ihtimalinin-azalmasiyla-gerilerken-bocnin-faizi-sabit-tutmasi-bekleniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CAD, ABD PCE verisinin beklentilerden yumu\u015fak gelmesiyle ve Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin azalmas\u0131yla gerilerken, BoC\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

USD\/CAD, Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde 1,4190 civar\u0131na geriledi; ABD dolar\u0131, ABD PCE enflasyonunun Fed\u2019in ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri yumu\u015fatmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Kanada dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zay\u0131flad\u0131. Man\u015fet PCE Fiyat Endeksi May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1 artarak Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez %4,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ise %0,5\u2019lik piyasa beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %0,4 oldu. Michigan \u00dcniversitesi T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni Endeksi g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak.<\/p>\n

Faiz piyasalar\u0131 da buna paralel fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcncelledi; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 Temmuz\u2019da Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %28,9\u2019a i\u015faret etti (\u00f6nceki %34,2). Kanada\u2019da ise Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131, olas\u0131 ABD ticaret k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ile enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareketlere kar\u015f\u0131 politika esnekli\u011fi duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi. Ayr\u0131 olarak Reuters, BoC\u2019nin enflasyon hedefi %1\u2013%3 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalmaya devam etse de, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar 17 baz puanl\u0131k bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (ge\u00e7en ay yakla\u015f\u0131k 60 bp) bildirdi.<\/p>\n

Anl\u0131k Piyasa Tepkisi ve ABD Dolar\u0131 \u00dczerindeki Bask\u0131<\/h3>\n

\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,4190\u2019a do\u011fru son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc ABD enflasyon verisine verilen k\u0131sa vadeli bir tepki olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa, Temmuz\u2019da Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri geri \u00e7ekiyor; CME FedWatch arac\u0131 art\u0131k %30\u2019un alt\u0131nda bir olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. 26 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla bug\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan ana tema, ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bu anl\u0131k bask\u0131.<\/p>\n

USD\/CAD \u0130\u00e7in Orta Vadeli G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/h3>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Kanada dolar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131n daha sert esece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Son bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131, WTI ham petrol vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 varil ba\u015f\u0131na 78,50 dolara kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc; bu seviye 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu durum, Kanada\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini temel olarak zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve \u201cLoonie\u201dnin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine tavan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

BoC\u2019nin g\u00fcvercin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de daha zay\u0131f bir CAD\u2019i destekliyor. Statistics Canada, GSYH\u2019nin Nisan\u2019da %0,1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; bu da merkez bankas\u0131na s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne s\u00fcresiz ara vermek i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n art\u0131k Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar sadece 17 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklemesini ve bunun ge\u00e7en aya k\u0131yasla keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bu tablo, Fed\u2019in BoC\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha uzun s\u00fcre daha s\u0131k\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir \u201cpolitika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131\u201dn\u0131 geni\u015fletiyor. Tarihsel olarak ABD-Kanada faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, USD\/CAD paritesi \u00fczerinde istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; 2022-2024 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc boyunca da bu paterni g\u00f6zlemledik. Piyasan\u0131n son ABD PCE raporunu sindirmesinin ard\u0131ndan bu tarihsel ili\u015fkinin yeniden devreye girmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n

Bu nedenle, USD\/CAD\u2019deki mevcut geri \u00e7ekilmeyi yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir harekete pozisyon almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak de\u011ferlendiririz. Temmuz sonu veya A\u011fustos vadeli, USD\/CAD\u2019de \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 bir toparlanmadan faydalanmay\u0131 sa\u011flarken, ABD dolar\u0131ndaki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Michigan T\u00fcketici G\u00fcveni verisini (son d\u00f6nemde beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde 98,5 gelmi\u015fti) ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n bir sonraki \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc Anketi\u2019ni yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. Kanada ekonomisinde ilave so\u011fuma sinyalleri, USD\/CAD\u2019de en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PCE verisi Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma beklentisini zay\u0131flat\u0131nca USD\/CAD 1,4190\u2019a indi. Ancak petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, BoC\u2019nin g\u00fcvercinli\u011fi ve a\u00e7\u0131lan faiz fark\u0131 orta vadede paritede yukar\u0131 potansiyeli destekliyor, call opsiyon \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49961,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50095\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49961"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}