USD\/CAD, emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Kanada Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (CAD) daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan destek bulmas\u0131yla Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinde 1,4200 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek ikinci ard\u0131\u015f\u0131k seansta geriledi. Ham petrol, Umman a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131nda bir kargo gemisine y\u00f6nelik \u015f\u00fcpheli bir mermi\/proje sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler tahliye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 aksatmas\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel enerji arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri yeniden alevlendirmesinin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Per\u015fembe kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan tansiyon artt\u0131: \u0130ki ABD\u2019li yetkilinin, gemi bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7i\u015f halindeyken \u0130ran g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin ate\u015f a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemesi ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019de belirlenen g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda faaliyet g\u00f6steren gemilerin g\u00fcvenli\u011finin art\u0131k garanti edilemeyece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131 yapmas\u0131yla risk alg\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckseldi. Bununla birlikte USD\/CAD\u2019deki kay\u0131plar s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; zira ABD Dolar\u0131, Federal Rezerv\u2019in daha s\u0131k\u0131 bir politika izleyece\u011fi beklentilerinden destek buldu. CME FedWatch, 15\u201316 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %63,4 g\u00f6steriyor. Enflasyon verileri de dolar\u0131 destekledi: Man\u015fet PCE May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4,1\u2019e y\u00fckselerek Nisan\u2019daki %3,3 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; \u00e7ekirdek PCE ise %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
26 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla USD\/CAD paritesinin 1,4200 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda bir \u201c\u00e7eki\u015fmeye\u201d s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Kanada dolar\u0131, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki yeni jeopolitik risklerin yukar\u0131 itti\u011fi petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki sert y\u00fckseli\u015ften g\u00fc\u00e7 al\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Federal Rezerv\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini giderek daha fazla fiyatlamas\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutuyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in destek belirgin: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol, Umman yak\u0131nlar\u0131ndaki son gemi sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca ge\u00e7en haftaki EIA raporunda ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda beklentilerin \u00fczerinde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi, petrol i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosunu g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek piyasay\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Kanada\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olmas\u0131, CAD i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel \u201ctaban\u201d olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Di\u011fer tarafta, ABD\u2019de inat\u00e7\u0131 enflasyon nedeniyle USD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenme arg\u00fcman\u0131 kuvvet kazan\u0131yor; son \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi %3,4\u2019te sa\u011flam kald\u0131. Vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen Eyl\u00fcl faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %63,4 olmas\u0131, Fed\u2019in harekete ge\u00e7mesi gerekti\u011fine y\u00f6nelik inanc\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. \u015eimdi t\u00fcm dikkatler, bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc do\u011frulayacak ya da sorgulatacak Temmuz istihdam raporuna \u00e7evrilmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Bu temel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma y\u00f6n tahminini zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor; bu nedenle en iyi yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n, volatilitedeki art\u0131\u015f beklentisinin bizzat kendisini i\u015flemlemek oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD i\u00e7in bir ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite zaten \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckseldi; bu da opsiyon piyasas\u0131n\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda her iki y\u00f6nde olas\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lmaya kar\u015f\u0131, straddle veya strangle sat\u0131n almak gibi \u201cuzun volatilite\u201d stratejilerini temkinli bir konumlanma olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n