{"id":50065,"date":"2026-06-26T12:31:26","date_gmt":"2026-06-26T12:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/uncategorized\/nzd-usd-zayif-pce-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-yedi-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesi-yakininda-stabil-seyrediyor\/"},"modified":"2026-06-26T12:31:26","modified_gmt":"2026-06-26T12:31:26","slug":"nzd-usd-zayif-pce-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-yedi-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesi-yakininda-stabil-seyrediyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/nzd-usd-zayif-pce-verisinin-fed-faiz-artisi-beklentilerini-azaltmasiyla-yedi-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesi-yakininda-stabil-seyrediyor\/","title":{"rendered":"NZD\/USD, Zay\u0131f PCE Verisinin Fed Faiz Art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Beklentilerini Azaltmas\u0131yla Yedi Ay\u0131n En D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck Seviyesi Yak\u0131n\u0131nda Stabil Seyrediyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

NZD\/USD, ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verilerinin genel olarak beklentilere paralel gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini durdurdu. Parite 0,5650 civar\u0131nda, yatay seyre yak\u0131n ve yedi ay\u0131n dip seviyelerine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. \u00c7ekirdek PCE enflasyonu May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda Nisan\u2019daki %3,3\u2019ten %3,4\u2019e y\u00fckselirken, ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f %0,3\u2019te sabit kald\u0131. Man\u015fet PCE ise y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,8\u2019den %4,1\u2019e h\u0131zlanarak Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek y\u0131ll\u0131k okumaya ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Veri sonras\u0131 piyasalarda Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fclendi; CME FedWatch Tool, olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 veri \u00f6ncesindeki %67\u2019den %60\u2019a \u00e7ekti. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k 101,80 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra 101,40 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. NZD\/USD, 0,5827\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ile 0,5874\u2019teki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019nin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken, RSI 29 civar\u0131nda ve ADX 30\u2019un \u00fczerindeydi. Diren\u00e7 0,5700 ve 0,5770 seviyelerinde; destek ise 0,5600\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

\n

ABD Enflasyonu ve Federal Rezerv G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc<\/h3>\n

NZD\/USD, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ici bir destek bularak 0,5880 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu duraklama, son ABD enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n zay\u0131flamas\u0131yla geliyor. Bunu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde temel bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ziyade k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir nefeslenme olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n

Son ABD verileri, May\u0131s 2026 \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyonunun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %2,8\u2019e hafif geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu do\u011fru y\u00f6nde bir ad\u0131m olsa da h\u00e2l\u00e2 Fed\u2019in hedefinin belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde. Ayl\u0131k %0,2 art\u0131\u015f, bask\u0131lar\u0131n azal\u0131yor olsa da kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da Federal Rezerv\u2019i zor bir konumda b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Buna paralel olarak, Temmuz\u2019da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7in piyasa beklentilerinin zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. CME FedWatch Tool, olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaln\u0131zca ge\u00e7en hafta %55\u2019in \u00fczerindeyken yakla\u015f\u0131k %40\u2019a geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yeniden fiyatlama, 104,50\u2019ye \u00e7ekilen ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ndeki (DXY) son zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fc konumunda.<\/p>\n

\n

Yeni Zelanda Ekonomik Ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve Teknik Analiz<\/h3>\n

Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise Yeni Zelanda ekonomisi, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde -%0,1 GSYH verisiyle teknik resesyona girerek zorlanma sinyalleri veriyor. Buna ra\u011fmen Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBNZ), kendi enflasyon sorunuyla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda %5,50\u2019lik y\u00fcksek resmi nakit faizini koruma konusunda kararl\u0131. Bu ekonomik zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Kiwi dolar\u0131n\u0131 temelde cazip olmaktan uzakla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 0,6050\u2019deki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA gibi kritik uzun vadeli hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmemiz nedeniyle NZD\/USD i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm negatif. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) 31 civar\u0131nda seyrederek a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu durum k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme tepkisini destekleyebilir; ancak ana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinde bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc teyit etmiyor.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu tablo, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda g\u00fc\u00e7lenme denemelerinde sat\u0131\u015f stratejisini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. 0,5950 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri, put opsiyonu almak veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc opsiyon spread\u2019leri kurmak i\u00e7in bir f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu pozisyonlar, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin yeniden h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131ndan faydalanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131sa vadeli oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z 0,5850 civar\u0131ndaki son dip. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n devam\u0131na i\u015faret ederek 0,5800\u2019deki \u00f6nemli psikolojik deste\u011fe do\u011fru yolu a\u00e7abilir. 0,5850 \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k ise ge\u00e7ici bir dengelenmeyi dahi de\u011ferlendirebilmek i\u00e7in gerekli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hemen i\u015flem yapmaya ba\u015flay\u0131n \u2014 ger\u00e7ek VT Markets hesab\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in buraya<\/a> t\u0131klay\u0131n.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PCE sonras\u0131 dolar zay\u0131flad\u0131, NZD\/USD alt\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc durdurup 7 ay dibinde yatayla\u015ft\u0131. Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerilerken teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif: RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m, diren\u00e7 0,5700\/0,5770, destek 0,5600.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":50064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}