Deutsche Bank stratejistleri, Micron\u2019dan gelen daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yapay zek\u00e2 \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelik g\u00fcveni yeniden tesis etti\u011fini ve son d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan ABD hisse vadelilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Micron, A\u011fustos\u2019a kadar s\u00fcren mali d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in 50 milyar dolar gelir \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu rakam 43,2 milyar dolarl\u0131k analist konsens\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve hisse, seans sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %16 y\u00fckseldi. NASDAQ 100 vadeli i\u015flemleri %1,77 artarken, S&P 500 vadeli i\u015flemleri %0,53 y\u00fckseldi; bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, endekste \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan bir toparlanmaya i\u015faret etti. Brent petrol\u00fcn ise \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Asya piyasalar\u0131 y\u00fckseldi; y\u00fckseli\u015fe Nikkei\u2019nin %4,10 ve KOSPI\u2019nin %5,73 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 liderlik ederken, CSI 300 %1,61 de\u011fer kazand\u0131. Hang Seng %1,38 geriledi ve bir y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine do\u011fru ilerledi. \u00d6nceki ABD seans\u0131nda S&P 500 %0,10 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; \u201cMuhte\u015fem 7\u201d %0,82 geriledi ve d\u00fczeltme b\u00f6lgesinde kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 28 May\u0131s zirvesine g\u00f6re %11,6 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da seyretti. S&P 500 enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, bile\u015fenlerin yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7te ikisi y\u00fckselmesine ve e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 S&P 500\u2019\u00fcn %0,71 artmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen %1,73 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; Avrupa\u2019da STOXX 600 ise %0,08 y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n—\n
Micron\u2019dan gelen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yapay zek\u00e2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hik\u00e2yesini yeniden alevlendirdi\u011fini ve teknoloji vadelilerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu s\u0131\u00e7rama, \u00f6zellikle S&P 500\u2019de \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, bizim i\u00e7in net bir taktik f\u0131rsat sunuyor. Nasdaq 100 vadelilerindeki %1,77\u2019lik anl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n teknoloji temas\u0131na agresif bi\u00e7imde yeniden al\u0131m yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu rallinin ard\u0131ndan Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) %8\u2019in \u00fczerinde sert d\u00fc\u015ferek yeniden 15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi ve ge\u00e7en haftaki zirvelerden geri \u00e7ekildi. Beklenen volatilitedeki bu gerileme, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknoloji hisseleri ve yar\u0131 iletken ETF\u2019lerinde put satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, sekt\u00f6re pozitiften n\u00f6tre uzanan bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ifade ederken prim toplamaya imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n—\n
Piyasa verileri, CBOE hisse put-call oran\u0131n\u0131n 0,65\u2019e gerilemesiyle (bir ay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesi) duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki bu de\u011fi\u015fimi teyit ediyor. Nasdaq 100 ETF\u2019inde (QQQ) k\u0131sa vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek hacim g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekteki call al\u0131mlar\u0131, mevcut toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ivme kazanaca\u011f\u0131na dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir inanca i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Muhte\u015fem 7 teknik olarak d\u00fczeltmede kal\u0131rken, e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 S&P 500\u2019deki temel g\u00fcc\u00fc son derece sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir sinyal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, piyasa rallisinin yaln\u0131zca birka\u00e7 mega-kap hisseyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmay\u0131p daha geni\u015f tabana yay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu da bizi, yaln\u0131zca al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f teknoloji liderleri yerine, daha geni\u015f bir S&P 500 hisseleri sepetinde call spread stratejilerine bakmaya te\u015fvik ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2025\u2019in ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz; k\u0131sa bir konsolidasyon d\u00f6neminin tek bir yapay zek\u00e2 ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 kataliz\u00f6rle k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131p \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 bir ralliye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc modele benziyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda Nasdaq 100\u2019\u00fcn t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvelerini test edebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite ortam\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak avantajl\u0131 uzun-call stratejileri kurgulay\u0131p bu olas\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyel i\u00e7in pozisyon almak gerekir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n