GBP\/USD 1,3160 seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkarak 1,3140\u2019a kadar geriledi, ard\u0131ndan toparlan\u0131p g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3170 civar\u0131nda kapatt\u0131; g\u00fcn i\u00e7i kay\u0131p %0,26 oldu. K\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketi h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimli; herhangi bir tepki \u00f6ncesinde 1,3130\u2019un test edilmesi i\u00e7in alan var. Daha derindeki 1,3110 deste\u011finin ise \u015fimdilik ula\u015f\u0131lmaz oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Yukar\u0131 tarafta diren\u00e7 1,3185\u2019te; 1,3200\u2019\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde paritenin 1,3135\u2019e do\u011fru ilerlemekten ziyade yatay bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye daha yatk\u0131n olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n\n
1\u20133 haftal\u0131k perspektifte, duru\u015fun bir hafta \u00f6nce negatife d\u00f6nmesinin ard\u0131ndan ton zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Spotun 19 Haziran\u2019da 1,3205 seviyesinde an\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan parite 1,3160\u2019\u0131 k\u0131rd\u0131 ve 1,3140 dip seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc; buna kar\u015f\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Tepkilerin 1,3245\u2019in alt\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla 1,3110\u2019a do\u011fru bir hareket olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 masada kalmaya devam ediyor; \u00f6nceki \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7\u201d i\u015fareti olan 1,3265\u2019e k\u0131yasla.<\/p>\n\n
Sterlinin ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki zay\u0131f seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, 1,3140\u2019a son geri \u00e7ekilmenin de negatif e\u011filimi teyit etti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda paritenin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeleri test etmesi olas\u0131; 1,3110 kritik bir hedef konumunda. Anl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentumun agresif olmamas\u0131, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ziyade kademeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n\n
T\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcn yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ya da yataya yak\u0131n bir piyasadan faydalanan stratejileri destekliyor. 1,3150 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na yak\u0131n put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, 1,3110\u2019a do\u011fru beklenen geri \u00e7ekilmeye pozisyon almak i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir yol olabilir. Alternatif olarak GBP\/USD vadeli kontratlar\u0131nda k\u0131sa pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da bu negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fle uyumlu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n
Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ve ABD ekonomileri aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fmaya i\u015faret eden son verilerle de destekleniyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan May\u0131s ay\u0131 Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 %0,5 gerileyerek beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve i\u00e7 ekonomide so\u011fumaya i\u015faret etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k son ABD Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam (Non-Farm Payrolls) verisi 215 bin istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin politika duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
Tarihsel olarak, \u015fahin bir Fed ile daha temkinli bir \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r; bu, 2022 sonlar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen paterne benzer. Risk y\u00f6netimi i\u00e7in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, \u00f6rne\u011fin 1,3150 put al\u0131p 1,3050 put satarak ay\u0131 put spreadi gibi stratejileri de\u011ferlendirebilir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve potansiyel k\u00e2r b\u00f6lgesini tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n\n
Negatif g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz, olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerin 1,3245\u2019teki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc diren\u00e7 alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor. Bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edecektir. 1,3245 seviyesi, k\u0131sa y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesi i\u00e7in kilit bir referans noktas\u0131 olarak izlenmelidir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n