GBP\/USD, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcnk\u00fc Asya seans\u0131nda kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi ederek 1,3175 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 1,3150\u2019nin \u00fczerinde tutundu. Piyasalar, ABD May\u0131s Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) enflasyon verisine odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda. Daha fazla ABD faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ve daha \u015fahin bir ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) alg\u0131s\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 desteklerken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi belirsizlik Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n Makerfield ara se\u00e7imlerini kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin yeni lider se\u00e7mek zorunda kalmas\u0131yla Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc istifa etmesi, Sterlin i\u00e7in ek bir r\u00fczgar tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta parite, \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3150\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na sarkarak dip yapt\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fcn\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir toparlanma sergiledi; fiyat buna ra\u011fmen son d\u00f6nemin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine yak\u0131n kal\u0131yor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikte GBP\/USD\u2019nin hem 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00dcssel Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (EMA) hem de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu iki ortalama 1,3400 civar\u0131nda yak\u0131nsam\u0131\u015f durumda ve mevcut seviyenin yakla\u015f\u0131k 225 pip \u00fczerinde diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Mevcut seviyelerin alt\u0131nda bir sonraki \u00f6nemli e\u015fik 1,3000 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck Stokastik G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (Stoch RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmek yerine orta bantta bulunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki mevcut siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Sterlin\u2019in son toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu ve kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fbakan\u0131n istifas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir belirsizlik yaratm\u0131\u015f durumda ve bu da GBP\/USD i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. 1,3200 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeler ihtiyatla kar\u015f\u0131lanmal\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Bu belirsizli\u011fin piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 zaten g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fitch, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019\u0131n \u201cAA-\u201d notunun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc negatife \u00e7evirdi. Ayr\u0131ca son Confederation of British Industry (CBI) anketi, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n yat\u0131r\u0131m niyetlerinin 2023\u2019ten bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye indi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; son Tar\u0131m D\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u0130stihdam raporu 210.000 ki\u015filik sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketin s\u00fcrmesine konumlan\u0131yor ve hedef olarak 1,3000 psikolojik destek seviyesini izliyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ifade etmek i\u00e7in put opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz; zira ima edilen oynakl\u0131k %9,5 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rmanm\u0131\u015f durumda ve bu da piyasan\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir harekete haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu strateji, olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalan\u0131rken riski s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tutmam\u0131za imkan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Mevcut tablo, ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Sterlin\u2019i sert \u015fekilde etkileyen siyasi \u015foklar\u0131 and\u0131r\u0131yor. 2016 Brexit oylamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 siyasi \u00e7alkant\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ve 2022 mini b\u00fct\u00e7e krizinde Sterlin, Dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarih, siyasi belirsizli\u011fin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k i\u00e7in kur zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tetikleyicisi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik grafik de ay\u0131 e\u011filimimizi teyit ediyor: kilit hareketli ortalamalar\u0131n yak\u0131nsad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1,3400 \u00e7evresinde kal\u0131n bir diren\u00e7 band\u0131 bulunuyor. 1,3000 e\u015fi\u011fine kadar belirgin bir teknik destek alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131; g\u00f6stergeler de hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131mda de\u011fil, bu da daha fazla geri \u00e7ekilme i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Yakla\u015fan ABD PCE enflasyon verisi bir sonraki ana kataliz\u00f6r olacak; verinin y\u00fcksek gelmesi halinde bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n