GBP\/USD \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc geriledi ve 1,3150\u2019nin hemen alt\u0131na sarkt\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fcn kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131na do\u011fru dip seviyelerden hafif toparland\u0131. Parite, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin tona d\u00f6nmesinin ard\u0131ndan Dolar bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k kaynakl\u0131 geli\u015fmeler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir denge unsuru sa\u011flad\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafik, kurun hem 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n hem de 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu iki ortalama 1,3400 civar\u0131nda yak\u0131nsad\u0131 ve spotun yakla\u015f\u0131k 225 pip \u00fczerinde diren\u00e7 olarak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Stoch RSI orta bantta seyretti\u011finden, ko\u015fullar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7m\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeden \u00f6nce a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in alan bulundu\u011fu ve 1,3000 \u00f6ncesinde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k faiz politikas\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek sundu. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ge\u00e7en hafta politika faizini sabit tutarken, dokuz \u00fcyeden ikisi faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131; bir sonraki karar\u0131n temmuz sonuna do\u011fru a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan siyasi belirsizlik de artarken, \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi\u2019nin yaz boyunca s\u00fcrmesi beklenen liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi nedeniyle bir \u201cemanet\u201d y\u00f6netim tablosu olu\u015ftu; Parlamento\u2019nun eyl\u00fclde yeniden toplanmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Haftan\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan verisi, Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi; beklentiler ayl\u0131k %0,3 ve y\u0131ll\u0131k %3,4 ile \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re hafif art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ediyor. K\u0131sa vadede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan seviyeler olarak 1,3200 ve 1,3400 diren\u00e7; 1,3150, 1,3100 ve 1,3000 destek olarak an\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin\u2019in toparlanamamas\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD i\u00e7in en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 taraf oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendirilir. Parite, 1,3150 \u00fczerinde tutunmakta zorlan\u0131rken, Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funun destekledi\u011fi ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Sterlin\u2019deki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri ise sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
G\u00fcnl\u00fck grafikteki teknik yap\u0131 bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu teyit ediyor. Fiyat, art\u0131k 1,3400 \u00e7evresinde \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesi olarak k\u00fcmelenen 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalamalar\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na indi. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri hen\u00fcz a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmedi\u011finden, paritenin 1,3000 psikolojik seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in kayda de\u011fer bir alan oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu beklenti, ABD\u2019den gelen son enflasyon verileriyle de destekleniyor. May\u0131s \u00e7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) endeksinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %3,2 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi, Fed\u2019in yak\u0131n vadede politika gev\u015fetmesini de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in bir gerek\u00e7e sunmuyor. Nitekim Fed fon vadeli piyasalar\u0131nda y\u0131l sonundan \u00f6nce faiz indirimi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015f durumda; bu da Dolar\u2019\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oluyor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k cephesi Sterlin\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek veriyor. BoE\u2019nin faizi sabit tutmas\u0131na ve baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy vermesine ra\u011fmen para birimi zay\u0131flad\u0131. Bunun bir nedeni, son verilerin Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k man\u015fet enflasyonunun %2,3\u2019e geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi; bu durum BoE \u00fczerindeki \u201cbeklenenden daha agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma\u201d bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev piyasalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD\u2019de a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karan stratejilere i\u015faret ediyor. Son Commitment of Traders raporuna g\u00f6re, vadeli i\u015flemler piyasas\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif fonlar Sterlin\u2019de net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, 1,3100 alt\u0131na olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma amac\u0131yla put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ya da 1,3200\u2019e do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin bask\u0131n duygu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
S\u00fcren \u0130\u015f\u00e7i Partisi liderlik yar\u0131\u015f\u0131 da Sterlin \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratan ek bir belirsizlik katman\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Westminster\u2019daki bu \u201csiyasi bo\u015fluk\u201d, yaz boyunca ekonomik politikay\u0131 y\u00f6nlendiren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir iradenin bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirerek Sterlin\u2019i k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Dolar, zay\u0131f teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019a \u00f6zg\u00fc belirsizliklerin birle\u015fimi, mevcut tabloda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir Sterlin g\u00fcc\u00fc arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n