Micron Technology hisseleri, \u015firketin May\u0131s\u2019ta sona eren mali \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte Wall Street beklentilerini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan seans sonras\u0131 i\u015flemlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %15 y\u00fckseldi. Hisse, normal seansta %1,3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 1.037,86 dolardan kapanm\u0131\u015f, kapan\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 ise 1.217 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fczeltilmi\u015f hisse ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00e2r (EPS) 25,11 dolar ile beklentiyi 4,83 dolar a\u015ft\u0131; 41,46 milyar dolarl\u0131k gelir ise tahminlerin 6,21 milyar dolar \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Haf\u0131za fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan s\u0131k\u0131 arz ve AI veri merkezi talebi sayesinde gelir y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %346 s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faaliyetlerden nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 25,39 milyar dolar oldu; bu rakam mali Q2\u2019deki 11,9 milyar dolar\u0131n ve bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki 4,61 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. DRAM ve HBM\u2019deki fiyat g\u00fcc\u00fc, Q3\u2019te br\u00fct marj\u0131 %84,6\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; SSD geliri ise \u00e7eyreklik bazda ikiye katlanarak 5 milyar dolara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eirket, y\u0131ll\u0131k 100 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir AI \u201crun-rate\u201d ile \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, A\u011fustos\u2019ta sona erecek mali Q4 i\u00e7in yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar dolar gelir, 31,00 dolar d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f EPS ve %86 br\u00fct marj \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u00e2r s\u00fcrprizi ve seans sonras\u0131 %15\u2019lik s\u0131\u00e7rama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Micron hissesinde yar\u0131n anlaml\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat bo\u015flu\u011fu (gap up) bekliyoruz; muhtemelen 1.200 dolar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilir. Bu \u201cblowout\u201d sonu\u00e7lar, s\u00fcregelen AI yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla beslenen haf\u0131za sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc teyit ediyor. Anl\u0131k duyarl\u0131l\u0131k, t\u00fcm yar\u0131 iletken alan\u0131 i\u00e7in belirgin bi\u00e7imde iyimser.<\/p>\n
Micron opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilitenin piyasa a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda sert bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve \u201cIV crush\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi muhtemel. Bu nedenle, do\u011frudan put veya call almak \u015fu a\u015famada pahal\u0131 ve g\u00f6rece verimsiz bir strateji olabilir. Hissenin yeni fiyat seviyesini koruyaca\u011f\u0131na inananlar i\u00e7in, prim sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (\u00f6rne\u011fin hissede vade d\u0131\u015f\u0131\/out-of-the-money put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131) daha iyi bir risk-getiri profili sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00fc\u00e7 yaln\u0131zca Micron\u2019a \u00f6zg\u00fc de\u011fil; daha geni\u015f SOX yar\u0131 iletken endeksi 2026\u2019da y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana zaten %35 y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Semiconductor Industry Association\u2019\u0131n (Yar\u0131 \u0130letken Sanayii Birli\u011fi) son verileri, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda bellek \u00e7ipi sipari\u015flerinde y\u0131ll\u0131k %45 art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret ederek Micron\u2019un raporlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yo\u011fun talebi do\u011frulad\u0131. Bunu \u015firket bazl\u0131 de\u011fil, sekt\u00f6r geneline yay\u0131lan bir destek unsuru (tailwind) olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Micron\u2019un, s\u0131k\u0131 arz\u0131n 2027 takvim y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine sarkaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc, bunun k\u0131sa vadeli bir s\u0131\u00e7rama olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Di\u011fer AI donan\u0131m tedarik\u00e7ilerinde de benzer kal\u0131plar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc: \u0130lk \u201cpatlay\u0131c\u0131\u201d bilan\u00e7o sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc yukar\u0131 trendler bir\u00e7ok \u00e7eyrek boyunca s\u00fcrebiliyor. Bu da, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda olas\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131klar\u0131n temel hik\u00e2yede bozulmadan ziyade teknik bir d\u00fczeltme olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, yeni beklenen i\u015flem band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla \u2014 \u00f6rne\u011fin 1.100-1.150 dolar seviyeleri civar\u0131nda \u2014 put kredi spread\u2019leri sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme al\u0131yoruz. Bu strateji, hem zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden hem de beklenen volatilite d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlan\u0131rken prim toplamay\u0131 sa\u011flar. Riskimizi s\u0131n\u0131rlar ve ilk gap up sonras\u0131nda hissenin y\u00f6n\u00fcne ili\u015fkin iyimserden n\u00f6tre bir duru\u015fu korur.<\/p>\n
Bu denli sert bir fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde gelebilecek k\u00e2r sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olmak gerekir. Ancak \u015firketin A\u011fustos \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin son derece g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmesi, olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmelerin piyasada muhtemelen al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmenin s\u00fcrme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131, yatay veya y\u00fckselen hisse fiyat\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayan stratejileri destekliyor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n