West Texas Intermediate (WTI) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirerek y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde geriledi. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda sa\u011flanan ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda mahsur kalan ham petrol kargolar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden piyasaya d\u00f6nmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. WTI, varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70,20 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeyi g\u00f6rd\u00fc; bu geri \u00e7ekilme, Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri verdi. ABD\u2019nin \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak kald\u0131rma hamlesinin de k\u00fcresel piyasalara ek arz getirmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Deniz ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131, kesintinin hafifledi\u011fine dair yeni kan\u0131tlar sundu: Son 24 saatte 72 gemi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131 ve 20 milyon varil petrol ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Bununla birlikte yetkililer, tam normalle\u015fmenin birka\u00e7 hafta s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini belirtti. ABD ve \u0130ran nihai bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 hen\u00fcz g\u00fcvence alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil; g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131 ve Bo\u011faz\u2019\u0131n gelecekteki y\u00f6netimi konular\u0131nda ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran ve Umman\u2019\u0131n, bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7en gemiler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccreti uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 devreye almas\u0131 da bekleniyor. ABD\u2019de Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) verileri, ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n 6,088 milyon varil azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; beklenti 5,1 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Bir \u00f6nceki hafta ise stoklar 8,262 milyon varil gerilemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
WTI\u2019\u0131n 70 dolar\u0131n alt band\u0131na sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. ABD\u2013\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki gerilimin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019nda bekleyen tankerlerin yeniden devreye girmesiyle \u00f6nemli bir arz \u015fokunu serbest b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Mevcut petrol arz\u0131ndaki bu h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, ABD stoklar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gibi y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc haberlerin etkisini bast\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fiyat zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131 pozisyon almak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n, 2015 n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 d\u00f6neme benzer \u015fekilde, k\u00fcresel arza g\u00fcnde 1 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde katk\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 ihtimali, aylar boyunca fiyatlarda \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131r olu\u015fturabilir. OPEC+ g\u00f6zlemcilerinden gelen g\u00fcncel raporlar, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7inde devreye alabilece\u011fi en az 1,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn \u00fcretim kapasitesinin bulundu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu bar\u0131\u015f k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riskine kar\u015f\u0131 korunma gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019sinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na \u00f6nerilen ge\u00e7i\u015f \u00fccretleri, ge\u00e7ici anla\u015fman\u0131n kolayl\u0131kla \u00e7\u00f6kmesine ve yeniden belirgin bir \u201csava\u015f primi\u201dnin fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu da fiyatlar\u0131n sert bi\u00e7imde tekrar yukar\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rayabilece\u011fi y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131kl\u0131 bir ortam yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Opsiyon piyasas\u0131 bu gerilimi yans\u0131t\u0131yor; CBOE Ham Petrol Oynakl\u0131k Endeksi (OVX) 45 gibi y\u00fcksek bir seviyede ve tarihsel ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00f6n beklentisi olmayanlar i\u00e7in straddle gibi oynakl\u0131ktan getiri sa\u011flayan stratejiler uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n
ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 6,088 milyon varillik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret eden son EIA raporu \u015fimdilik g\u00f6z ard\u0131 ediliyor. Piyasa oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n haftal\u0131k stok verilerinden, daha geni\u015f jeopolitik arz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne tamamen kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da nihai ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir anla\u015fma sa\u011flanana kadar, jeopolitik ba\u015fl\u0131klar fiyat hareketinin birincil belirleyicisi olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n\n\n\n