Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda %3\u2019ten fazla gerileyerek 3.986 dolara indi ve Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana ilk kez 4.000 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Geni\u015f tabanl\u0131 ABD Dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD Hazine tahvil getirileri ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletebilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik s\u00f6ylemlerle zay\u0131flayan Petrol\u2019\u00fcn olu\u015fturdu\u011fu deste\u011fi g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 13 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 101,80\u2019e dokundu ve ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisi yakla\u015f\u0131k dokuz baz puan d\u00fc\u015ferek %4,410\u2019a inse de endeks %0,19 art\u0131\u015fla 101,56 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) ham petrol %3,40 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70,55 dolara gerilerken, ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fczakereler gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterildi; ancak Tahran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerine y\u00f6nelik denetimlere ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kt\u0131. Fed projeksiyonlar\u0131 19 kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n sekizinin 2026\u2019n\u0131n sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fun ise faizlerin sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret etti. Prime Terminal, bir sonraki toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 %60 \u201cde\u011fi\u015fiklik yok\u201d ve %40 \u201cart\u0131\u015f\u201d olarak hesaplarken, Aral\u0131k i\u00e7in olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 %82\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; piyasada 20 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma fiyatland\u0131.<\/p>\n\n
Teknik tarafta, k\u00fcl\u00e7enin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 4.473 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Basit Hareketli Ortalama\u2019n\u0131n (SMA) k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ve 4.400 dolar civar\u0131nda bir kez daha ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zland\u0131. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine ge\u00e7se de 20 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. 3.950 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131nda 3.900 dolar, ard\u0131ndan 28 Ekim 2025\u2019teki sal\u0131n\u0131m zirvesi olan 3.886 dolar ve bir sonraki destek olarak 22 Nisan 2025 g\u00fcnl\u00fck zirvesinin deste\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 3.500 dolar izleniyor. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde, bir toparlanman\u0131n \u00f6nce 4.000 dolar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan 23 Mart g\u00fcnl\u00fck dip olan 4.098 dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi\u2019ne g\u00f6re merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton Alt\u0131n ekledi. ABD veri takviminde ise Core PCE, 2026 ilk \u00e7eyrek GSYH, Dayan\u0131kl\u0131 Mal Sipari\u015fleri ve haftal\u0131k i\u015fsizlik maa\u015f\u0131 ba\u015fvurular\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc 4.000 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik seviyenin alt\u0131na sert k\u0131r\u0131lma dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, k\u0131sa vadede alt\u0131nda \u201cen az diren\u00e7\u201d y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7, 13 ay\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmanan ABD Dolar\u0131; bu durum alt\u0131n\u0131 yabanc\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in daha pahal\u0131 hale getiriyor. Dolar\u0131n bu g\u00fcc\u00fc, normalde gerileyen tahvil getirilerinin alt\u0131na sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 deste\u011fi bask\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n\n
Odakta Fed beklentileri var ve t\u00fcrev piyasas\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na %82 olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7mesi, alt\u0131n i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlara g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, eski destek b\u00f6lgesi olan 4.400 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerindeki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerilemeye ra\u011fmen ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelik inanc\u0131n y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren CME FedWatch arac\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan da destekleniyor.<\/p>\n\n
Yakla\u015fan Core PCE enflasyon raporu, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in art\u0131k en kritik veri noktas\u0131. Son CFTC verileri, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin net uzun alt\u0131n pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7ekti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Konsens\u00fcs tahmini olan %3,0\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde gelecek herhangi bir enflasyon okumas\u0131, muhtemelen yeni bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikler ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu teyit eder.<\/p>\n\n
RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine girmi\u015f olsa da hen\u00fcz \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 u\u00e7\u201d d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde de\u011fil; bu da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n i\u00e7in h\u00e2l\u00e2 alan oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Tarihsel destekle de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen bir sonraki mant\u0131kl\u0131 hedef olarak 3.900 dolar seviyesini izliyoruz. Bu nedenle, 3.950 veya 3.900 dolar civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip put opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131, s\u00fcregelen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle pozisyon alma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunuyor.<\/p>\n\n
Bu piyasa ortam\u0131, agresif Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde belirgin bir tavan olu\u015fturdu\u011fu 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki gerilimin azalmas\u0131 alt\u0131n i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir deste\u011fi ge\u00e7ici olarak ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsa da temkinli kalmak gerekiyor. K\u0131sa pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ani bir jeopolitik t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131 korunma amac\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli, vadesiz (out-of-the-money) call opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n\n\n\n