Ringgit, Haziran FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana geride kald\u0131; y\u00fckselen ABD tahvil getirileri ve ABD\u2013Malezya faiz fark\u0131ndaki geni\u015fleme MYR \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu. Hareket, Malezya\u2019n\u0131n i\u00e7 dinamiklerinde bir de\u011fi\u015fimden ziyade ABD faiz dinamikleri taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirildi; dayan\u0131kl\u0131 imalat ve elektronik ihracat\u0131, orta vadeli \u00e7er\u00e7evenin \u00f6nemli bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Kontroll\u00fc enflasyon ve akaryak\u0131t s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi, Bank Negara Malaysia\u2019n\u0131n para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma aciliyetini azalt\u0131yor. Bu da ABD\u2013Malezya faiz makas\u0131 geni\u015flerken MYR\u2019yi daha k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor; orta vadeli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm yap\u0131c\u0131 kalsa da, k\u0131sa vadede a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi destekliyor. ABD faiz bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hafiflemesiyle birlikte, i\u00e7 makro temellerin yeniden daha belirleyici olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Ringgit, Federal Reserve\u2019in bu ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan bu yana zorlan\u0131yor; y\u00fckselen ABD getirileri piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor. Bunu, Malezya\u2019n\u0131n kendi ekonomik hik\u00e2yesinde bir bozulmadan ziyade d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 ge\u00e7ici bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/MYR 4,75\u2019e do\u011fru t\u0131rman\u0131rken, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirilerinin yeniden yakla\u015f\u0131k %4,65 seviyelerine y\u00fckselmesi bask\u0131y\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ringgit i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa pozisyon almak i\u00e7in USD\/MYR al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 veya k\u0131sa vadeli forward s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Temel itici g\u00fc\u00e7, ABD Fed fonlama faizinin %5,50\u2019de kalmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Bank Negara Malaysia politika faizinin %3,25\u2019te sabit olmas\u0131yla faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi.<\/p>\n
Malezya merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131yla devreye girmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ciddi bir bask\u0131 bulunmamas\u0131, ringgitin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en ay enflasyonun yaln\u0131zca %2,1 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 ve akaryak\u0131t s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2len y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckte olmas\u0131, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n bekle-g\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmesine alan a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu tablo, \u015fahin Fed\u2019in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geli\u015fen piyasa temellerini benzer \u015fekilde g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 d\u00f6nemini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s ay\u0131nda elektronik ihracat\u0131nda bildirilen y\u0131ll\u0131k %8\u2019lik art\u0131\u015f gibi dayan\u0131kl\u0131 temellerin deste\u011fiyle orta vadede yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc koruyoruz. Mevcut negatif duru\u015f taktiksel nitelikte; ABD faiz bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n hafifledi\u011fine dair sinyaller arayaca\u011f\u0131z. Bu de\u011fi\u015fim ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finde, ringgitin altta yatan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n