Yen, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k seyretmesi ve piyasalar\u0131n Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmeleri izlemesiyle ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti. USD\/JPY 161,75\u2013161,79 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen 161,93 zirvesinin alt\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta konsolide oldu. Parite, Fed\u2019in Ekonomik Projeksiyonlar \u00d6zeti\u2019ndeki (SEP) noktasal grafik (dot plot) arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla %2 enflasyon hedefini yinelemesinin ard\u0131ndan yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini korurken, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve enflasyonun %3\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde kalmaya devam etmesi dolar lehine g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc destekledi. Dikkatler Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak \u00c7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (Core PCE) Fiyat Endeksi\u2019ne \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Prime Terminal verilerine g\u00f6re, para piyasalar\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az 20 baz puanl\u0131k ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; bu da Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %82\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na, Temmuz\u2019da faizin sabit tutulma ihtimalinin ise %60 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etti. Petrol ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu endi\u015feleri ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirisini yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek %4,406\u2019ya \u00e7ekti. ABD Yeni Konut Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 May\u0131s\u2019ta mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %7,3 geriledi\u011fini N\u00fcfus Say\u0131m B\u00fcrosu (Census Bureau) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131; Japonya\u2019da hizmetler \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) %3,3 artt\u0131. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde USD\/JPY, 159,28 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken, destekler 160,00, 157,41 ve 157,09 seviyelerinde izlendi; RSI (14) 72,02 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 sert duru\u015funu, dolar\u0131n yen kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n Aral\u0131k\u2019a kadar %82 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131yla, temel anlamda en az diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Enflasyonun %2,8\u2019de kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren son ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE verisi, Fed\u2019in di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha uzun s\u00fcre \u015fahin kalaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu y\u00fckseli\u015f trendindeki ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk, \u00f6zellikle 161,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Japon yetkililerden gelebilecek do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale. 2022\u2019nin sonlar\u0131nda Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 151,90 civar\u0131nda devreye girmesiyle ya\u015fanan sert sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor; yen\u2019i desteklemek i\u00e7in 60 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde harcama yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bakan Katayama\u2019dan gelen mevcut s\u00f6zl\u00fc uyar\u0131lar, sab\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden azald\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoJ) \u015fahin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyiz; \u00fcyeler daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Japonya\u2019da ulusal \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon yak\u0131n zamanda %2,5 olarak kaydedildi ve b\u00f6ylece 25\u2019inci ay \u00fcst \u00fcste merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n %2 hedefinde ya da \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, BoJ\u2019un son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131na inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k kazand\u0131r\u0131yor ve tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir yen rallisini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ani bir tersine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f riski g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu denli uzayan seviyelerde do\u011frudan uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131maya temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. M\u00fcdahale ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde olas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlarken yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamak i\u00e7in al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) veya y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc call spread stratejilerinin daha iyi bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatilite bu stratejileri daha maliyetli k\u0131lmakla birlikte, piyasadaki ger\u00e7ek belirsizli\u011fi de yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131t g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki gerilim, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat hareketi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu nedenle, yakla\u015fan ABD enflasyon raporu gibi kritik olaylar etraf\u0131nda uzun straddle gibi volatilite bazl\u0131 stratejileri de de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, y\u00f6n\u00fcnden ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z \u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir k\u0131r\u0131lmadan k\u00e2r etmeye imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n\n\n\n