ABN AMRO ekonomistleri Bill Diviney ve Larissa de Barros Fritz, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n istifas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ve piyasa sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131, yerine Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n ge\u00e7me olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na odaklanarak inceledi. De\u011ferlendirmeleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 hafifletmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemler i\u00e7eren, daha sol e\u011filimli ve yeniden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131mc\u0131 bir politika y\u00f6nelimine dayan\u0131yor; finansman\u0131n ise varl\u0131kl\u0131lara y\u00f6nelik daha y\u00fcksek vergilerden gelmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan analiz, maliye politikas\u0131nda s\u00fcreklilik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Burnham\u2019\u0131n mevcut mali kurallara genel hatlar\u0131yla ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu da tahvil piyasalar\u0131yla \u201cLiz Truss\u201d benzeri bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa ve gilt\u2019lerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bozulmaya i\u015faret ediyor. Baz senaryolar\u0131nda Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k mali konsolidasyon patikas\u0131nda kal\u0131yor; b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 2025\u2019te %5,2\u2019den 2026\/27\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k %3,5\u2019e gerilemesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Andy Burnham liderli\u011findeki bir h\u00fck\u00fcmete ge\u00e7i\u015f beklentisi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, piyasan\u0131n siyasi riski a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 2022\u2019nin sonundaki \u00e7alkant\u0131n\u0131n aksine, o d\u00f6nemde 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirileri g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde 100 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015ft\u0131; bu kez mali konsolidasyona ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131k bekliyoruz. Bu da gilt piyasas\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni volatilitenin fazla y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor; SONIA veya gilt vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerine opsiyon satmay\u0131 cazip bir strateji h\u00e2line getiriyor.<\/p>\n
Belirsizlik ortam\u0131nda ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,25 seviyesine zay\u0131flayan sterlinin toparlanmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130stikrarl\u0131 bir mali patika, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 rahatlat\u0131r ve \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonu yeniden %2 hedefine yakla\u015ft\u0131rmadaki son ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 mali duru\u015fu netle\u015ftik\u00e7e ge\u00e7en ay g\u00f6r\u00fclen 1,28 band\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f beklentisiyle, k\u0131sa vadeli GBP\/USD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda belirgin bir ayr\u0131\u015fma bekliyoruz. Varl\u0131kl\u0131 kesime y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nerilen vergi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 l\u00fcks t\u00fcketim ve varl\u0131k y\u00f6netimi \u015firketleri i\u00e7in ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratabilirken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli hanehalklar\u0131na destek t\u00fcketim temel \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ve indirimli perakende \u015firketlerine fayda sa\u011flamal\u0131. Ge\u00e7en ay indirimli perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacimlerinde %1,5 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren son ONS verilerini dikkate alarak, opsiyonlar \u00fczerinden l\u00fcks markalarda k\u0131sa pozisyona kar\u015f\u0131 t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 hisselerden olu\u015fan bir sepette uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131mak gibi pair trade kurgular\u0131nda de\u011fer g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n