WTI, \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 derinle\u015ftirerek yaz\u0131m s\u0131ras\u0131nda 69,70 dolar civar\u0131nda ve %4,40 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; 2 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini test etti. ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi, \u0130srail\u2013\u0130ran sava\u015f\u0131yla birlikte biriken jeopolitik risk priminin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri verdi ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme yak\u0131n 67 dolar seviyelerine yeniden yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u00f6rfez enerji ihracat\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir kesinti ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na dair endi\u015felerin azalmas\u0131yla sat\u0131\u015flar h\u0131z kazan\u0131rken, denizcilik izleme verileri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan ge\u00e7en gemi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, trafik \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin alt\u0131nda kalsa da ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bo\u011faz\u0131n uzun vadeli y\u00f6netimine ili\u015fkin diplomasi de ilerleme kaydetti; Katar ve Umman, \u0130ran, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ve Irak\u2019\u0131 bir araya getirecek bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve \u00f6nerdi. Buna paralel olarak ABD, uluslararas\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ve Amerikan rafinerilerinin \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fc al\u0131mlar\u0131na yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131na izin veren ge\u00e7ici 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir muafiyet tan\u0131d\u0131; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ilave arz beklentilerini art\u0131rd\u0131. ING, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz\u2019den ge\u00e7en hacimlerin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi seviyelerin belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu belirtirken, petrol piyasas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma i\u015faretleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. TD Securities ise K\u00f6rfez\u2019de y\u00fczer durumdaki ham petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131n son haftalarda keskin bi\u00e7imde geriledi\u011fini ifade etti. Piyasalar ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2013\u0130ran n\u00fckleer denetim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini izliyor: Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n UAEA (IAEA) denet\u00e7ilerinin geri d\u00f6nmesini kabul etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi, ancak \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililer herhangi bir takvimin belirlenmedi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
West Texas Intermediate ham petrol\u00fcnde sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda 80 dolar\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda tutunmay\u0131 ba\u015faramas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar \u015fimdi 70 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu gerileme, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki son gerilimler nedeniyle fiyatlanan jeopolitik risk priminin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. ABD ham petrol \u00fcretimi g\u00fcnl\u00fck 13 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korurken, piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131 yeniden arz-temel dinamiklere kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ay\u0131 e\u011filimi, k\u00fcresel talebin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyallerle besleniyor; \u00f6zellikle Asya\u2019dan gelen son ekonomik veriler daha zay\u0131f bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. Buna, daha fazla arz\u0131n piyasaya girmesine imk\u00e2n tan\u0131yan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131nda ge\u00e7ici bir gev\u015feme de eklenince, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde belirgin bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fuyor. Bu arz-talep tablosu tam olarak fiyatlanana kadar k\u0131sa vadede en olas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticilerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 alttaki piyasa s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131yor olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. OPEC+, \u00fcretim kesintilerini gelecek y\u0131la kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme niyetini i\u015faret ederek fiyatlar\u0131n tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesine kar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir taban olu\u015fturuyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ABD Stratejik Petrol Rezervi (SPR) 2022\u2019deki \u00f6nemli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u00e2l\u00e2 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcklerine yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fi i\u00e7in, piyasan\u0131n beklenmedik arz \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 absorbe edecek tamponu \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek belirsizlik ve birbiriyle \u00e7eli\u015fen anlat\u0131lar\u0131n bulundu\u011fu bu zeminde, petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite artt\u0131. Serbest d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi yerine fiyat\u0131n yeni ve daha istikrarl\u0131 bir bant bulaca\u011f\u0131 senaryosuna oynayarak, iron condor veya k\u0131sa strangle gibi stratejilerle prim sat\u0131m\u0131nda bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, piyasa son haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sindirirken zaman a\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan (time decay) gelir elde etmemizi sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, yaz talebinin beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler i\u00e7in haftal\u0131k Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi (EIA) stok raporlar\u0131na odaklanaca\u011f\u0131z. Ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda belirgin ve beklenmedik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin t\u00fckendi\u011fine dair ilk i\u015faret olacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca, mevcut arz fazlas\u0131 endi\u015feleri zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir fiyat toparlanmas\u0131na bahis oynamak i\u00e7in takvim spread\u2019lerini (calendar spreads) kullanacak \u015fekilde pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n