USD\/IDR, s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlanarak Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 17.870 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; Rupiah \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. MSCI\u2019nin uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi\u011fi ve Bank Indonesia\u2019n\u0131n kuru istikrara kavu\u015fturma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, piyasalar bu hafta yap\u0131lacak kritik g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmede Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n geli\u015fen piyasalar stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc korumas\u0131n\u0131 yine de bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Parite, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebi g\u00f6rmesiyle de g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131. Bu talep, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisine ili\u015fkin yeniden alevlenen endi\u015felerle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda ilk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler i\u00e7in \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerle bir araya gelmesine ra\u011fmen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm belirsizli\u011fini korurken, Katar ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde nihai bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen resm\u00ee bir yol haritas\u0131nda uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 iyile\u015febilir. Dolar lehine destek, Fed\u2019in duru\u015fuyla da peki\u015fti: 19 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 9\u2019u bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve piyasalar olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7eli\u015fkili sinyaller g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/IDR paritesinde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fcksek volatilite bekliyoruz. MSCI g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi ve ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131na ili\u015fkin belirsizlik, y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131 riskli k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7in, straddle veya strangle al\u0131m\u0131 gibi fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejilerin en temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131m oldu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Ana risk, bu haftaki MSCI geli\u015fen piyasa stat\u00fcs\u00fc de\u011ferlendirmesi; zira sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr durumda. Bank Indonesia verilerine g\u00f6re yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar son iki haftada yerel devlet tahvillerinde net 950 milyon dolarl\u0131k sat\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Olas\u0131 bir not\/ stat\u00fc indirimi riskine kar\u015f\u0131, Rupiah\u2019ta sert de\u011fer kayb\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla bir ay vadeli, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 piyasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) ucuz USD al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) topluyoruz.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran kaynakl\u0131 jeopolitik g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fc k\u0131sa vadede dalgal\u0131 seyir yarat\u0131yor; ancak piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n diplomatik yol haritas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi (VIX) 14,5 ile g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde tutunuyor; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n hen\u00fcz b\u00fcy\u00fck bir t\u0131rmanmay\u0131 fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 iyimserli\u011finin USD\/IDR\u2019de yarataca\u011f\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeleri, uzun dolar pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ise, ABD dolar\u0131na g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sa\u011flayan \u015fahin Fed duru\u015fu bulunuyor. CME FedWatch arac\u0131n\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %68 g\u00f6stermesiyle, dolar i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fc yukar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Bu nedenle USD\/IDR\u2019nin 17.700 seviyesine do\u011fru geri \u00e7ekilmesi, uzun pozisyonlar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
MSCI g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi \u00f6ncesi USD\/IDR 17.870\u2019te; sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 Rupiah\u2019\u0131 zorluyor. Jeopolitik risk ve \u015fahin Fed dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Volatilite artabilir: opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 17.700 geri \u00e7ekilme al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49790","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49790","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49790\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}