Asya hisse senetleri haftaya zay\u0131f ba\u015flad\u0131 ancak ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki ilerleme, daha geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin KOSPI endeksi yatay seyrederken, Hong Kong\u2019un Hang Seng\u2019i ve Endonezya\u2019n\u0131n IDX Composite endeksi g\u00fcn\u00fc %1\u2019in \u00fczerinde kay\u0131pla ge\u00e7irdi. Japonya b\u00f6lgesel e\u011filimden ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131; duyarl\u0131l\u0131ktaki iyile\u015fmeyle Nikkei 225 %2\u2019nin \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n
Tokyo\u2019daki hareket, Katar ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n arabulucu olarak nihai bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden yolda resm\u00ee 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 duyurunun ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bu geli\u015fme; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresinde gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 asker\u00ee eylem uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fand\u0131. \u0130ran daha sonra, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019i ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7layarak ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki s\u00fcren \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek su yolunu yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) \u015fahin duru\u015funu korudu; enflasyonun inat\u00e7\u0131 kalmas\u0131 halinde 2026\u2019da en az bir adet 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut piyasay\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ile \u015fahin bir Federal Rezerv aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu, volatilite i\u00e7in net bir tarif sunuyor; CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda 21 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ve tarih\u00ee ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 da bunu teyit ediyor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca maj\u00f6r endekslerde ani fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmak gerekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak kapatmas\u0131 nedeniyle ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. K\u00fcresel petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in darbo\u011faz niteli\u011findeki bu su yoluna y\u00f6nelik tehditler dahi ge\u00e7mi\u015fte Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 tek g\u00fcnde %5\u2019in \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131; 2019\u2019daki benzer gerilimlerde oldu\u011fu gibi. Bu riski de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent vadeli i\u015flemleri \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 g\u00fcndemimize al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonunu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, hisse senetleri i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir olumsuz r\u00fczg\u00e2r olmaya devam ediyor. Fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri 2026 sonuna kadar en az bir ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir olas\u0131l\u0131kla fiyatlarken, bu ortam\u0131 uzun pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hedge etmek i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yoruz. Daha y\u00fcksek faizlerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi olas\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilmeye kar\u015f\u0131 korunmak amac\u0131yla SPY gibi geni\u015f piyasa ETF\u2019leri \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Asya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcrken Nikkei\u2019deki %2\u2019lik ralli, yen zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00f6zg\u00fcn bir tablo sunuyor. Fed daha y\u00fcksek faiz sinyali verdik\u00e7e ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ve USD\/JPY paritesinin y\u00fckselmesi beklenir; bu trend tarihsel olarak Japon ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyerek Nikkei\u2019yi yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131r. Bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na oynama yolu olarak USD\/JPY vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Asya borsalar\u0131 zay\u0131f a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131; ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f yol haritas\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Hang Seng ve Endonezya %1+ d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Nikkei %2+ y\u00fckseldi. Fed \u015fahin; VIX 21, petrol\/opsiyon hedgeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47782,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49789","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49789","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49789"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49789\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47782"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49789"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49789"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49789"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}