Hollanda’da t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Haziran ay\u0131nda iyile\u015fti; d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f endeks -46\u2019dan -39\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. Bu hareket, duyarl\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam etse de, hanehalk\u0131 ko\u015fullar\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmenin daha az olumsuz hale geldi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Hollanda t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveninde Haziran\u2019da -46\u2019dan -39\u2019a y\u00fckseli\u015fle kayda de\u011fer bir iyile\u015fme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Duyarl\u0131l\u0131k h\u00e2l\u00e2 belirgin bi\u00e7imde negatif olsa da, bu seviye bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en iyimser okumalar\u0131ndan biri ve k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu momentum de\u011fi\u015fimi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan \u00f6nemli bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, son d\u00f6nemde dar bir bantta i\u015flem g\u00f6ren AEX endeksinde bir f\u0131rsat g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. T\u00fcketici duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olur; bu da endeks i\u00e7indeki b\u00fcy\u00fck perakende ve hizmet odakl\u0131 \u015firketlere destek sa\u011flar. Bu nedenle olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon almak \u00fczere, A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeli AEX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu olumlu de\u011fi\u015fim, Euro B\u00f6lgesi genelinde kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015feleri nedeniyle y\u00fcksek seyreden piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir. AEX opsiyonlar\u0131ndaki z\u0131mni oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n (implied volatility) bir miktar pahal\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fini; ge\u00e7mi\u015f korkular\u0131 fiyatlay\u0131p bu iyile\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc yeterince yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Temkinli iyimser bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fle prim toplamak amac\u0131yla, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmak ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu t\u00fcketici verisi, g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz daha geni\u015f e\u011filimlerle de uyumlu. \u00d6rne\u011fin son Euro B\u00f6lgesi enflasyon verisinin %2,4\u2019e gerilemesi, hanehalk\u0131 b\u00fct\u00e7eleri \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131n\u0131n hafifledi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca, son HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Endeksi daralma b\u00f6lgesinde kalsa da 47,6 ile be\u015f ay\u0131n zirvesine y\u00fckselerek piyasa beklentilerini a\u015ft\u0131. Bu unsurlar bir arada, ekonomik k\u00f6t\u00fcmserli\u011fin en k\u00f6t\u00fc k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n geride kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, piyasa diplerinin \u00e7o\u011fu zaman sert ekonomik verilerde zirveler g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken de\u011fil, duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n dip yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde olu\u015ftu\u011funu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2020 pandemisi s\u0131ras\u0131nda g\u00fcvende ya\u015fanan keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan, AEX GSYH verileri tam toparlanmadan \u00f6nce izleyen alt\u0131 ayda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u015eu anda da t\u00fcketicilerden benzer, ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck bir sinyal g\u00f6r\u00fcyor olabiliriz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dikkat \u00e7eken sinyal: Hollanda t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni Haziran\u2019da -46\u2019dan -39\u2019a y\u00fckseldi. K\u00f6t\u00fcmserlik azal\u0131rken hanehalk\u0131 harcamas\u0131 beklentisi g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor; AEX\u2019te yukar\u0131 potansiyel, call opsiyonlar\u0131 ve OTM put sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47759,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49783","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49783","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49783"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49783\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47759"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49783"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49783"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49783"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}