USD\/CAD, \u00fcst \u00fcste be\u015finci seansta da y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 1,4190 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve 14 ay\u0131n zirvesi olan 1,4191\u2019e dokundu. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebinden destek bulurken, odak daha sonra Kuzey Amerika seans\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verilerine kay\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyon, CNBC\u2019nin pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidinde bulundu\u011funu bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan y\u00fckseldi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance, ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerle ilk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Tahran ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyururken, \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi; ancak kaynaklar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin perde arkas\u0131nda sessiz \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ge\u00e7en hafta faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi ancak \u015fahin bir ton benimsedi; 19 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 9\u2019u bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve piyasalar olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131 eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte fiyatl\u0131yor. Kanada Dolar\u0131, Katar ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019den yapt\u0131klar\u0131 ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamada taraflar\u0131n 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde nihai bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen resmi bir yol haritas\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesine ra\u011fmen, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle zay\u0131flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenlik amac\u0131yla ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelmesiyle USD\/CAD kurunun 14 ay\u0131n zirvelerine t\u0131rmand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda t\u0131rmanan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ciddi belirsizlik yarat\u0131yor; bunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu ortam, ya b\u00fcy\u00fck dalgalanmalardan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flayabilecek ya da net bi\u00e7imde tan\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f koruma sunabilecek stratejileri gerekli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatma tehdidi kritik bir unsur; zira k\u00fcresel petrol s\u0131v\u0131lar\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %21\u2019i g\u00fcnl\u00fck olarak bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. Tarihsel olarak, 2019\u2019daki tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi bu kanaldaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck aksakl\u0131klar bile ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda anl\u0131k s\u0131\u00e7ramalara yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f normalde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklerdi; ancak \u015fu anda g\u00fcvenli liman ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131n talep bu dengeyi belirliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle daha da belirginle\u015fiyor. Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) bu ay gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 5 Haziran\u2019da politika faizini %4,75\u2019e indirdi. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, USD\/CAD\u2019de daha y\u00fcksek seviyeler i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir temel r\u00fczg\u00e2r arkas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor ve bunun yaz boyunca s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu trend \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, vadesi a\u011fustos veya eyl\u00fclde olan USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeyi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu sayede hem jeopolitik geli\u015fmelerin hem de Fed politikas\u0131n\u0131n destekledi\u011fi ilave y\u00fckseli\u015f potansiyeline kat\u0131lmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor. Bu t\u00fcrev stratejisi, azami riski opsiyon i\u00e7in \u00f6denen primle net bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n kritik enflasyon verisi bug\u00fcn ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, k\u0131sa vadeli fiyat hareketleri oynak olabilir. Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir fiyat hareketi bekleyen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejisi, do\u011frudan oynakl\u0131\u011fa oynayarak etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olabilir. Halihaz\u0131rda uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131yanlar i\u00e7inse, beklenenden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Kanada enflasyon verisine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetli bir sigorta i\u015flevi g\u00f6rebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 14 ay\u0131n zirvesinde: \u0130ran gerilimiyle g\u00fcvenli liman talebi dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor, petrol d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc CAD\u2019i zay\u0131flat\u0131yor. G\u00f6zler Kanada T\u00dcFE\u2019sinde; Fed \u015fahin, BoC gev\u015fek\u2014opsiyon stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47731,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49782\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47731"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}