USD\/JPY haftaya daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131; Asya seans\u0131nda yeniden 161,00 ortalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve ge\u00e7en per\u015fembe g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveye yak\u0131n seyretti. Bu seviye, Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Japon yetkililer, kur hareketlerine her an yan\u0131t vermeye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi; ancak piyasalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden enerji arz\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 kesintileri fiyatlarken yen zay\u0131f kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019i ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131ktan sonra su yolunu yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve bu ad\u0131m\u0131 L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesiyle ili\u015fkilendirdi. Donald Trump, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yeni askeri ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunarak jeopolitik risk primlerini y\u00fcksek tuttu.<\/p>\n
Bu arka plan, Nisan ay\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda baz\u0131 \u00fcyelerin temel enflasyonun hedefin \u00fczerine ta\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek i\u00e7in daha h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, yeni bir Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoJ) s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentileri t\u00f6rp\u00fcledi. Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Himino, BoJ\u2019un ekonomik, fiyatlama ve finansal e\u011filimlere ba\u011fl\u0131 kalarak faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi %1,00 seviyesinde ve bu, 1995\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey; buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 %3,5-%3,75\u2019te sabit tutarak JPY carry trade\u2019i destekledi. \u0130\u015flemler ayr\u0131ca 2026\u2019da en az bir kez 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; bu da dolar\u0131n, cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc May\u0131s 2025 zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan dengelenmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu.<\/p>\n
ABD ile Japonya aras\u0131ndaki faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, USD\/JPY \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Carry trade cazibesini koruyor; yen bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili ABD varl\u0131klar\u0131na yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir strateji olmaya devam ediyor. Bu temel dinami\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda de\u011fi\u015fmesi olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmedi\u011finden, paritede en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011fu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Paritenin 161,00\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, Japon otoritelerden do\u011frudan m\u00fcdahale riski son derece y\u00fcksek. Bu nedenle i\u015flemleri opsiyonlarla kurgulamak; \u00f6zellikle daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131rken azami zarar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rlamak uygun olacakt\u0131r. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, resmi ad\u0131mlar\u0131n tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani ve sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe maruz kalmadan y\u00fckseli\u015fe kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak Japon otoriteler bu seviyeler civar\u0131nda kararl\u0131 ad\u0131mlar att\u0131; \u00f6rne\u011fin 2024 bahar\u0131nda rekor 9,2 trilyon yen harcayarak para birimini savunmu\u015flard\u0131. Bu emsal \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bull call spread kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 da temkinli bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, bir call al\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir call satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir; i\u015flem maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ve kademeli, istikrarl\u0131 bir y\u00fckseli\u015ften getiri elde etmeyi hedefler.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, hem m\u00fcdahale riskleri hem de Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilimler nedeniyle ima edilen volatilitenin y\u00fckseldi\u011fini unutmamak gerekir. Bu durum opsiyonlar\u0131 pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rsa da, ani ve y\u00fcksek etkili geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 gerekli bir \u201csigorta maliyeti\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7in kritik bir hat olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00e7evresindeki istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k, volatiliteyi muhtemelen y\u00fcksek tutacak ve g\u00fcvenli liman dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyecektir.<\/p>\n
Japon ekonomisindeki temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc destekliyor. Enerjisinin %90\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 ithal eden bir \u00fclke olarak Japonya, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 arz kesintilerine ve artan petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc derecede hassas. Bu ekonomik bask\u0131, \u015fimdilik BoJ\u2019un \u015fahin s\u00f6ylemini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakarak yen \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam edecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/JPY 161 \u00fcst\u00fcnde: Temmuz 2024\u2019ten beri zirvede. Orta Do\u011fu\/H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski ve geni\u015f faiz fark\u0131 carry\u2019yi besleyip yeni y\u00fckseli\u015f alan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ancak Japonya\u2019n\u0131n m\u00fcdahale riski \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek; opsiyonla korunma \u00f6neriliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47889,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49781","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49781","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49781"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49781\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49781"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49781"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49781"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}