EUR\/USD Teknik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ve Jeopolitik Etkenler<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken Avrupa i\u015flemlerinde yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,1465\u2019e gerileyerek, parite 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Piyasan\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131nda, Katar ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin olumlu ve yap\u0131c\u0131 bir atmosferde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011finin belirtilmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019nin B\u00fcrgenstock kentindeki ABD-\u0130ran m\u00fczakerelerine ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeler yer ald\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klamada ayr\u0131ca, L\u00fcbnan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 tedbirlerde ilerleme sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair unsurlara da at\u0131f yap\u0131ld\u0131; bunlar aras\u0131nda petrol ve petrokimya ihracat\u0131na muafiyetler, bir ablukan\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, baz\u0131 dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir yeniden in\u015fa ve kalk\u0131nma plan\u0131n\u0131n devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Politika beklentileri de fiyatlamalarda etkili oldu; bir ECB yetkilisi, enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131na yay\u0131lmas\u0131 halinde merkezin gelecek ay kadar erken bir tarihte yeniden faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. ECB mevduat faizi %2,25 seviyesinde bulunurken, piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131 eyl\u00fcl ya da ekimde 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flara ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f daha ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor. Grafikte RSI yakla\u015f\u0131k 34 seviyesinde; ilk destek, alt Bollinger band\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,1450 civar\u0131nda izlenirken, diren\u00e7 seviyeleri 1,1570, 1,1665 ve 1,1695 yak\u0131n\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, euro FX i\u015flem hacminin %31\u2019ini olu\u015ftururken, ortalama g\u00fcnl\u00fck ciro 2,2 trilyon dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde. EUR\/USD ise i\u015flemlerin tahmini %30\u2019unu temsil ediyor; EUR\/JPY %4, EUR\/GBP %3 ve EUR\/AUD %2 ile takip ediyor.<\/p>\n
EUR\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc izliyoruz; 22 Haziran 2026 itibar\u0131yla parite 1,1420 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu seviye, kritik 1,1450 deste\u011finin alt\u0131na sarkmaya i\u015faret ederek kal\u0131c\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 teyit ediyor. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, \u015fimdilik sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n kontrol\u00fc elinde tuttu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Bu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc momentum, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan gelen \u015fahin tona ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi Haziran 2026 enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin son \u00f6nc\u00fc tahmin %2,5 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sergileyerek ECB \u00fczerinde yeni bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirme bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 canl\u0131 tutuyor. ECB Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Isabel Schnabel\u2019in ge\u00e7en hafta benzer y\u00f6nde verdi\u011fi mesajlar da piyasa beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ABD\u2019de may\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verileri \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %2,6\u2019ya geriledi\u011fine i\u015faret ederek Fed\u2019in sab\u0131rl\u0131 kalabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131 hissetti\u011fi, Fed\u2019in ise ayn\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zorunlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu artan politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, parite i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r olu\u015fturuyor. Temel tarafta, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 19 Haziran 2026 tarihli son CFTC raporu, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin eurodaki net uzun pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum, hedge fonlar ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular nezdinde euronun yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcne dair inanc\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bu t\u00fcr kaymalar \u00e7o\u011fu zaman ilave fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerinin \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc olabiliyor.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten faydalanmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 uygulanabilir bir strateji olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin temmuz vadeli 1,1400 put al\u0131p 1,1300 put satarak bir \u201cbear put spread\u201d kurmak, prim maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rlarken a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hedefe pozisyon almak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili olabilir. Bu strateji, 1,1570\u2019teki kritik direncin a\u015f\u0131lmamas\u0131 ko\u015fuluyla avantaj\u0131n\u0131 korur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
G\u00f6zler EUR\/USD\u2019de: 1,1450 alt\u0131na sarkma sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. B\u00fcrgenstock\u2019taki ABD-\u0130ran temaslar\u0131 risk alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 etkilerken, \u015fahin ECB\u2013sab\u0131rl\u0131 Fed ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 1,1570 diren\u00e7, put spread \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49780","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49780"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49780\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49780"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49780"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49780"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}