NYMEX\u2019te WTI vadeli i\u015flemleri, ABD ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bir anla\u015fmaya do\u011fru ilerleme kaydedildi\u011fini bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan, Asya i\u015flemlerinde Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc erken saatlerdeki kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle yakla\u015f\u0131k 75,50 dolara geriledi. CNBC\u2019ye g\u00f6re \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 Abbas Araghchi; petrol ve petrokimya ihracat\u0131na y\u00f6nelik muafiyetler, \u0130ran limanlar\u0131na uygulanan ABD deniz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, dondurulmu\u015f varl\u0131klar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve bir yeniden in\u015fa ve kalk\u0131nma plan\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131na at\u0131fta bulundu. Ayr\u0131 olarak \u0130ran, hafta sonunda H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; d\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise daha sonra, ticari gemilerin su yolundan g\u00fcvenli ge\u00e7i\u015fini sa\u011flamak \u00fczere resm\u00ee bir ge\u00e7i\u015f mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fczenlendi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance da g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck ilerleme\u201d kaydetti\u011fini s\u00f6ylerken, arabulucular Katar ve Pakistan da ilerleme oldu\u011funu belirtti. Pakistan\u2013Katar ortak a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, \u00dcst D\u00fczey Komite\u2019nin 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde nihai anla\u015fmaya giden bir yol haritas\u0131 \u00fczerinde uzla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bunun, ilave teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin derhal ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi. Grafiklerde WTI, yakla\u015f\u0131k 84,05 dolardaki 20 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kal\u0131rken RSI (14) 33 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor. Diren\u00e7 84,05 dolar ve ard\u0131ndan 90 dolar seviyelerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, destek 18 Haziran dip seviyesi olan 72,79 dolarda; bu seviyenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde 67,20 dolara do\u011fru potansiyel bir hareket g\u00fcndeme gelebilir.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerindeki belirgin ilerlemeyi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana s\u00fcr\u00fckleyicisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde nihai bir anla\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, temelde \u201cay\u0131\u201d bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ortaya koyuyor. Bu jeopolitik de\u011fi\u015fimin, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca piyasa y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirlemesi muhtemel.<\/p>\n
Nihai bir anla\u015fma, aylar i\u00e7inde k\u00fcresel piyasaya g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1,3 milyon varile kadar \u0130ran ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden girmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Bu olas\u0131 arz art\u0131\u015f\u0131, son verilerin k\u00fcresel stoklar\u0131n zaten istikrarl\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Piyasan\u0131n, bu kadar ilave hacmi belirgin bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ya\u015famadan kolayca absorbe etmeye haz\u0131r olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131, talepte zay\u0131flama i\u015faretleriyle daha da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. EIA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son K\u0131sa Vadeli Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, \u00c7in\u2019de sanayi faaliyetlerindeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tahminlerini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti. Artan arz ile yumu\u015fayan talebin birle\u015fimi, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u201cay\u0131\u201d kataliz\u00f6r\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel bir k\u0131yas i\u00e7in 2015 JCPOA anla\u015fmas\u0131 d\u00f6nemine bak\u0131labilir. Bu anla\u015fma \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131ndaki aylarda, \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc fiyatland\u0131k\u00e7a WTI ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 %30\u2019dan fazla gerilemi\u015fti. Bu kez de benzer, ancak muhtemelen daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm do\u011frultusunda, put opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak daha fazla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket i\u00e7in pozisyon al\u0131yoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131, 72,79 dolarl\u0131k son dip seviyenin alt\u0131na hedeflerken, sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyeye yak\u0131n olan 67,20 dolar\u0131 da izliyoruz. Bu opsiyonlar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde beklenen fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden yararlanmak i\u00e7in riskin tan\u0131ml\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir yol sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, 84,05 dolarl\u0131k diren\u00e7 seviyesinde veya \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip \u201cay\u0131\u201d call credit spread\u2019leri olu\u015fturuyoruz. Bu strateji, WTI\u2019\u0131n bu teknik tavan\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 h\u00e2linde k\u00e2rl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r; zira y\u00fckseli\u015flerin k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi de (RSI), yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olas\u0131 hareketlerin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc destekliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
WTI, ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131na 60 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131m sinyaliyle %1,2 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcp 75,50 dolara indi. \u0130ran arz\u0131 artabilir, talep zay\u0131f. Teknik: 84,05 diren\u00e7, 72,79 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 67,20 hedef. Put \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}