Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD) \u00fc\u00e7 g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f serisini sonland\u0131rarak yeniden 4.200 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine t\u0131rmand\u0131, ancak Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fclen bir haftay\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine yak\u0131n i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam etti. Ham Petrol, arabulucu Katar ve Pakistan\u2019\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik resmi 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, haftaya m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bo\u015flukla ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu geli\u015fme enflasyon ve faiz endi\u015felerini azaltarak k\u00fcl\u00e7eye bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. Ancak ABD Dolar\u0131 (USD) g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc ve alt\u0131n\u0131n toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, ge\u00e7en haftaki \u015fahin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna kadar Federal Rezerv\u2019den faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Yeni Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh da fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme zay\u0131flasa bile faiz indirimine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir aciliyet g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. \u0130ran, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131 ve ABD ile \u0130srail\u2019i ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131; Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump ise daha fazla askeri eylem tehdidinde bulundu. Rusya da Ukrayna \u015fehirlerine y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu tablo, USD\u2019nin May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine yak\u0131n kalmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Teknik tarafta alt\u0131n, 4.334 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda bask\u0131lanmaya devam ediyor; RSI \u00fcst-30\u2019larda seyrederken MACD h\u00e2l\u00e2 negatif b\u00f6lgede.<\/p>\n
22 Haziran 2026 tarihi itibar\u0131yla, alt\u0131ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan ve muhtemelen k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bask\u0131n dinamikler; \u015fahin Fed beklentileri ve jeopolitik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 olmaya devam ediyor. Alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeler, yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinden ziyade sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Getiri sa\u011flamayan de\u011ferli metal \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc etkisi bulunan faiz olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz. CME FedWatch Tool, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimalini yakla\u015f\u0131k %90 seviyesinde fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor; bu denli y\u00fcksek bir kanaat, 2022\u2019deki agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnden bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti. Bu ortam, alt\u0131n tutmaya k\u0131yasla ABD dolar\u0131 tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile t\u0131rmanan gerilim \u00f6nemli bir unsur; ancak bunun alt\u0131ndan ziyade g\u00fcvenli liman olarak ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131 daha fazla destekledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Tarihsel olarak, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k %20\u2019si i\u00e7in bir bo\u011faz noktas\u0131 olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik tehditler, dolar bazl\u0131 varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelimi art\u0131r\u0131r. Bu dinamik, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda XAU\/USD\u2019de olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan, 4.334 dolar civar\u0131ndaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n yeniden ele ge\u00e7irilmesinde ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z kal\u0131nmas\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sinyali. Bu seviyeyi, yeni k\u0131sa pozisyonlar ba\u015flatmak i\u00e7in kritik bir \u201ck\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi\u201d olarak de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Alt\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde net bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7 y\u00f6n\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 tarafta kalmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrev i\u015flemler taraf\u0131nda bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi ya da fiyat\u0131n bant i\u00e7inde kalmas\u0131 senaryosundan faydalanmak i\u00e7in put opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131 veya \u201cbear call spread\u201d kurulumu gibi stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor. Y\u00fcksek jeopolitik belirsizlik ima edilen volatiliteyi y\u00fckseltse de, Fed\u2019in duru\u015fundan kaynaklanan temel bask\u0131 bize daha net bir y\u00f6nsel e\u011filim sunuyor. 4.300 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131r\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131n 4.200\u2019\u00fc a\u015ft\u0131 ama nefesi k\u0131sa: \u015eahin Fed\u2019in %90 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar toparlanmay\u0131 bast\u0131r\u0131yor. 4.334\u2019teki 200G EMA k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi; y\u00fckseli\u015fler sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47867,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47867"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}