USD\/CHF, pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcne uzayan y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 0,8080 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve 19 Haziran\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k yedi ay\u0131n zirvesi 0,8091\u2019e yak\u0131n kald\u0131. CNBC\u2019nin, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu\u011funu bildirmesinin ard\u0131ndan artan jeopolitik risk g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131mlar\u0131yla dolar\u0131 destekledi; ayr\u0131ca Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in ge\u00e7ici bir d\u00fczenleme kapsam\u0131nda \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine ili\u015fkin temaslar da g\u00fcndeme geldi. Tahran ise H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyururken, \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yazd\u0131; buna kar\u015f\u0131n di\u011fer kaynaklar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131, Fed\u2019in faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmemesi ancak \u015fahin bir ton benimsemesinin ard\u0131ndan da destek buldu. 19 politika yap\u0131c\u0131dan 9\u2019u bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re taraf\u0131nda, SNB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Martin Schlegel h\u0131zl\u0131 de\u011ferlenmenin fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit etmesi halinde CHF satarak m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r olduklar\u0131n\u0131 yineledi. Enflasyonun %0\u2013%2 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 seyretti\u011fi ve yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f oldu\u011fu belirtilirken, SNB politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc toplant\u0131da sabit tuttu.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CHF i\u00e7in ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn, \u015fahin bir Fed ile g\u00fcvercin bir \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015flemesi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Fed olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, SNB frank\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a frank satmaya haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu belirtiyor. Bu temel uyu\u015fmazl\u0131k, CHF kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda USD\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesinin s\u00fcrmesi i\u00e7in net bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc destekler nitelikte, son veriler CME FedWatch Tool\u2019un Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k Fed faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %68 olarak fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son T\u00dcFE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131k %1,3 ile s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; bu da SNB\u2019nin politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 i\u00e7in bir te\u015fvik b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu istatistiksel fark, paritenin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi beklentimizi g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki jeopolitik gerilim, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman \u00e7ekicili\u011fini art\u0131r\u0131rken \u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel \u201cs\u0131\u011f\u0131nak\u201d rol\u00fcn\u00fc de karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131ran ek bir katman yarat\u0131yor. Bu durum, USD\/CHF opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatiliteyi 8,2\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131rken, bir ay \u00f6nce 6,5 seviyesindeydi; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131na haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Bizce bu ortam, hem yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete hem de artan volatiliteye fayda sa\u011flayan stratejileri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu tablo, 2022-2023 d\u00f6neminde Fed\u2019in agresif s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ultra gev\u015fek duru\u015fundan belirgin bi\u00e7imde ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 dinami\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde USD\/JPY\u2019de bir y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcre devam eden g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir ralli g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Politika fark\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, burada da benzer\u2014ancak muhtemelen daha az u\u00e7\u2014bir trendin olu\u015fabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, USD\/CHF\u2019de daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f i\u00e7in call opsiyonlar\u0131na y\u00f6neliyoruz. \u00d6zellikle, A\u011fustos 0,8100 call al\u0131p A\u011fustos 0,8250 call satmak gibi bo\u011fa call spread pozisyonlar\u0131 makul g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu strateji, y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmaya izin verirken, opsiyon primlerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir piyasada ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 maliyetini s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CHF 0,8080\u2019de; jeopolitik gerilim ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu dolar\u0131 besliyor. SNB ise frang\u0131 frenlemek i\u00e7in m\u00fcdahaleye haz\u0131r. Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve artan volatilite y\u00fckseli\u015f\/call spread senaryosunu \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49777","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49777","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49777"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49777\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49777"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49777"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49777"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}