ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), \u00f6nceki seanstaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc geri alarak Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 100,80 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n (USD) alt\u0131 maj\u00f6r para biriminden olu\u015fan sepete kar\u015f\u0131 daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret etti. Jeopolitik risklerin olas\u0131 bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 etraf\u0131nda yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelmesi destek sa\u011flarken, enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve faizlerin daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi odakta kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
CNBC\u2019nin haberine g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump, Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n \u0130srail\u2019e y\u00f6nelik sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi halinde \u0130ran\u2019a do\u011frudan sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidinde bulundu. Bu ad\u0131m, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerle ilk tur g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir d\u00f6nemde dahi diplomatik ilerleme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6lgeledi. Tahran ayr\u0131ca H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi; \u0130ran devlet medyas\u0131 m\u00fczakerelerin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirirken, di\u011fer kaynaklar g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc aktard\u0131. Ayr\u0131 olarak, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ge\u00e7en hafta faizleri sabit tuttu ve \u015fahin bir ton benimsedi; 19 politika yap\u0131c\u0131n\u0131n 9\u2019u bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte olas\u0131 bir ad\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD dolar\u0131ndaki yeniden g\u00fc\u00e7lenme dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bu trendin s\u00fcrmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyon almak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu ve politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemesi, dolar i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir r\u00fczg\u00e2r arkas\u0131na d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bu nedenle, ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) vadeli i\u015flemlerinde uzun pozisyonlar\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 ve \u00f6nceki y\u0131llardaki zirvelere do\u011fru bir hareketi hedeflemeyi de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n g\u00f6rmezden gelemeyece\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enflasyonist tehdit. Tarihsel olarak bu bo\u011faz, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n toplam petrol arz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bir dar bo\u011faz niteli\u011finde; dolay\u0131s\u0131yla herhangi bir aksama, belirgin bir fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. T\u0131rmanan jeopolitik riski do\u011frudan fiyatlamak i\u00e7in WTI ve Brent ham petrol\u00fcnde uzun al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n uygun bir yol sundu\u011funa inan\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu olas\u0131 enerji \u015foku, enflasyonun %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle Fed\u2019in agresif duru\u015funu da destekliyor; t\u0131pk\u0131 2024 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz kal\u0131c\u0131 %3,3 seviyelerindeki ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeler gibi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na konumlanmak i\u00e7in Hazine tahvili vadeli i\u015flemlerinde k\u0131sa (short) pozisyon almaya y\u00f6nelik opsiyonlar\u0131 inceliyoruz. Piyasan\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl kadar erken bir tarihte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatlamas\u0131, bu stratejiyi zamanl\u0131 k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilim ile faiz belirsizli\u011finin birle\u015fmesi, piyasa volatilitesi i\u00e7in klasik bir re\u00e7etedir. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019ni (VIX), do\u011frudan ABD-\u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gibi tarihsel olarak VIX\u2019i 30\u2019un belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131yabilen \u00f6nemli risklere k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Daha geni\u015f portf\u00f6y\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc hedge etmek ve piyasa dalgalanmas\u0131nda beklenen art\u0131\u015ftan faydalanmak i\u00e7in VIX al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve y\u00fckselen reel faizler, de\u011ferli metaller gibi getiri \u00fcretmeyen varl\u0131klar i\u00e7in ciddi bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturur. Bu nedenle alt\u0131nda temkinli kal\u0131yor ve beklenen zay\u0131fl\u0131ktan yararlanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Benzer \u015fekilde, daha defansif bir hisse pozisyonlanmas\u0131na ge\u00e7iyoruz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, \u00e7ok uluslu \u015firketlerin k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY 100,80\u2019e toparland\u0131: Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve enflasyon endi\u015feleri dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019a sald\u0131r\u0131 tehdidi ve H\u00fcrm\u00fcz riski petrol\u00fc, VIX\u2019i ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentilerini \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49775","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49775"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49775\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49775"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49775"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49775"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}