GBP\/USD, Asya i\u015flemlerinde ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yumu\u015famayla birlikte haftal\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bo\u015flu\u011funu (bearish gap) kapatarak 1,3235\u2019e do\u011fru yeniden y\u00fckseldi; ancak y\u00fckseli\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Katar ve Pakistan, nihai bir ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131na giden yolda resm\u00ee 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir yol haritas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fme g\u00fcvenli liman Dolar\u0131\u2019na olan talebi azalt\u0131rken paritede baz\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131n\u0131 (short-covering) tetikledi. Bununla birlikte, hafta sonu gelen daha geni\u015f jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve Federal Rezerv\u2019in \u015fahin e\u011filimi, Greenback\u2019e y\u00f6nelik altta yatan deste\u011fi korudu.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yeniden t\u0131rmand\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tekrar kapatt\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n yeni sald\u0131r\u0131 tehditleri sonras\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler jeopolitik risk primlerini y\u00fcksek tutarak GBP\/USD\u2019de sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n yeniden artma riskini b\u00fcy\u00fctt\u00fc. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k siyasetindeki belirsizlik de sterlini bask\u0131lad\u0131: Ba\u015fbakan Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc kadar erken bir tarihte istifa edebilece\u011fine dair haberler, eski Manchester Belediye Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilece\u011fi yorumlar\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca, \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoE) faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ili\u015fkin daha yumu\u015fak beklentiler, Cuma g\u00fcnk\u00fc dip seviyeden (Mart sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviye) kal\u0131c\u0131 bir toparlanma alan\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
GBP\/USD\u2019de 1,2350\u2019ye do\u011fru hafif bir tepki y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz, ancak bu hareket yeni bir trendden ziyade k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltme niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131yor. Temel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, sterlindeki olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmenin b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ge\u00e7ici olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Daha geni\u015f piyasa dinamikleri nedeniyle yukar\u0131 potansiyelin ciddi bi\u00e7imde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimler belirleyici bir unsur olmaya devam ediyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki son deniz tatbikatlar\u0131, sermayeyi g\u00fcvenli liman ABD dolar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirdi. Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri ge\u00e7en hafta %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde artarak varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; VIX endeksi de 20\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselerek piyasa korkusunun artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. Bu t\u00fcr bir ortam do\u011fal olarak dolar\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlin \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131ran bir di\u011fer unsur ise Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelen siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k. Maliye Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n istifa edebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin s\u00f6ylentiler piyasalarda rahats\u0131zl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k gilt getirileri ile Alman bundlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 endi\u015fesinin net bir g\u00f6stergesi. Bu siyasi t\u00fcrb\u00fclans, sterlin i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu olu\u015fturmay\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ile \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da daha belirgin hale geliyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta ABD enflasyon verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde %3,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirdi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019ta May\u0131s ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015f verisi, BoE\u2019ye ilave faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle GBP\/USD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015fleri yeni k\u0131sa pozisyon denemek veya sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ge\u00e7 2025 d\u00f6nemine ait tarih\u00ee destek b\u00f6lgesinin kolayl\u0131kla k\u0131r\u0131labilece\u011fini de\u011ferlendirerek 1,2200 civar\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 put al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 izliyoruz. Y\u00fcksek ima edilen volatilite (implied volatility) ise, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete pozisyon al\u0131rken prim toplamak amac\u0131yla al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu spread\u2019leri satmay\u0131 da cazip bir strateji haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin k\u0131sa pozisyon kapamalar\u0131yla 1,3235\u2019e toparlansa da jeopolitik risk (H\u00fcrm\u00fcz, \u0130srail-\u0130ran), UK siyasi belirsizlik ve Fed \u015fahinli\u011fi dolar\u0131 destekliyor. Ralli sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131; 1,2200 put\/opsiyon stratejileri g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47658,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49774\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}