AUD\/JPY, pazartesi Asya i\u015flemlerinde \u00f6nceki seanstaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan hafif y\u00fckselerek 113,30 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Avustralya Dolar\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in son politika duru\u015funun ard\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC), bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k Kredi Ana Faiz Oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (LPR) s\u0131ras\u0131yla %3,00 ve %3,50 seviyelerinde de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; faizde istikrar, ticaret ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 AUD i\u00e7in destekleyici bir zemin sundu.<\/p>\n
Avustralya\u2019da ise para birimi, Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBA) bu ay politika faizini sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yurt i\u00e7i politikalardan destek almaya devam etti. RBA, enflasyonun h\u00e2len \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu yineleyerek ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ihtimalinin masadan kalkmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn zirve yap\u0131p yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik odak art\u0131yor; ikinci \u00e7eyrek enflasyonu belirgin bi\u00e7imde s\u00fcrpriz yaratmad\u0131k\u00e7a ek art\u0131\u015f\u0131n genel olarak olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmedi\u011fi de\u011ferlendiriliyor. \u00d6te yandan, Yen\u2019in d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riskinin devam etmesi ve Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoJ) daha \u015fahin bir ton gelebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle destek bulmas\u0131 halinde \u00e7aprazdaki ilave y\u00fckseli\u015fler s\u0131n\u0131rlanabilir. Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla faizin %1,00\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan g\u00f6zler sal\u0131 g\u00fcnk\u00fc Japonya PMI verilerine ve \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131mlanacak BoJ G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00d6zeti\u2019ne \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
AUD\/JPY paritesinin 113,30 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bunun, emtia\/\u00c7in ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 Avustralya dolar\u0131na olumlu yans\u0131yan istikrarl\u0131 \u00c7in para politikas\u0131nca desteklendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu carry trade, Avustralya ve Japonya faizleri aras\u0131ndaki geni\u015f fark\u0131n etkisiyle uzun s\u00fcredir k\u00e2rl\u0131 seyretti. Mevcut tablo, 2024 boyunca faiz fark\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6zlemledi\u011fimiz trendin devam\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Avustralya dolar\u0131, RBA\u2019n\u0131n enflasyonun \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa y\u00f6nelik uyar\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle destek buluyor. Enflasyonun %2-3 hedef band\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde inat\u00e7\u0131 seyretmesi ve 2024\u2019\u00fcn \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde %3,6 d\u00fczeylerinde kalmas\u0131, bu \u015fahin duru\u015fu gerek\u00e7elendiriyor. Bu da, yakla\u015fan enflasyon verilerinin s\u00fcrpriz yapmas\u0131 halinde AUD taraf\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n potansiyel yaratabilir; bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara d\u00f6n\u00fck k\u0131sa vadeli AUD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, JPY\u2019yi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmeye y\u00f6nelik olas\u0131 Japonya m\u00fcdahalesi riski nedeniyle ilave y\u00fckseli\u015flerde temkinli olmak gerekiyor. Yetkililerin 2024 Nisan ve May\u0131s aylar\u0131nda para birimini desteklemek i\u00e7in 9 trilyon yenin \u00fczerinde kaynak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck; bu, yenin \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde aksiyon al\u0131nabilece\u011fine dair net bir emsal olu\u015fturuyor. Yakla\u015fan BoJ G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler \u00d6zeti, daha agresif bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma sinyali vererek y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek kritik bir g\u00fcndem maddesi.<\/p>\n
Paritenin y\u00fcksek seviyesi ve m\u00fcdahale tehdidi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, t\u00fcrev stratejilerinin bu riski y\u00f6netmeye odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. AUD\/JPY al\u0131m spread\u2019leri (call spread) ile, azami zarar \u00f6nceden tan\u0131mlanarak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n hareketten faydalanmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Alternatif olarak, uzun pozisyon ta\u015f\u0131rken \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d JPY al\u0131m opsiyonu (veya AUD\/JPY sat\u0131m opsiyonu) almak, Japon yetkililerin tetikleyebilece\u011fi ani ve sert bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 hedge sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
AUD\/JPY 113,30\u2019da tutunuyor: \u00c7in LPR sabitli\u011fi ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin mesaj\u0131 carry trade\u2019i destekliyor. Ancak BoJ\u2019un \u015fahinle\u015fmesi ve Japon m\u00fcdahale riski y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilir; opsiyonla hedge \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49772","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}