AUD\/USD, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019na y\u00f6nelik talebin olas\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamas\u0131yla Pazartesi Asya saatlerinde 0,7000 seviyesinin hemen \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc seansta da yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Hafta sonu ya\u015fanan jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda risk i\u015ftah\u0131 zay\u0131flarken, \u015fahin ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveden geri \u00e7ekilmesinin ard\u0131ndan dengelenmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 oldu. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA), enflasyonun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 halinde ilave faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ederek Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan AUD\/USD, Mart\u2013May\u0131s y\u00fckseli\u015finin %61,8 Fibonacci d\u00fczeltmesinin alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, paritenin 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n ve %50,0 d\u00fczeltme seviyesinin alt\u0131na sarkmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filimi canl\u0131 tutuyor. Momentum g\u00f6stergeleri zay\u0131f seyrediyor; RSI 37 civar\u0131nda, MACD ise s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n hafif alt\u0131nda. %61,8 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131k, 0,6928 civar\u0131ndaki %78,6 hedefini ve \u00f6nceki dip b\u00f6lgesi olan 0,6832\u2019yi g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Yukar\u0131da ise diren\u00e7ler 0,7055\u2019te, ard\u0131ndan 0,7085 yak\u0131n\u0131nda; sonras\u0131nda 0,7108 ve 0,7173 seviyeleri izleniyor.<\/p>\n
AUD\/USD paritesinin 0,7000 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda dar bir bantta s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara ili\u015fkin temel e\u011filimimiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde kalmaya devam ediyor. ABD dolar\u0131 g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor ve parite i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li yolun a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Stratejiler, olas\u0131 bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan fayda sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde konumland\u0131r\u0131lmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu son verilerle peki\u015fiyor; ge\u00e7en haftaki ABD \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi %3,1 ile beklentinin bir miktar \u00fczerinde geldi. Bu tablo, dolar\u0131 cazip tutuyor. \u00d6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki ad\u0131mlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin jeopolitik riskler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klar\u0131na y\u00f6nlendirirken, bu ortam risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek Avustralya dolar\u0131 i\u00e7in do\u011frudan bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa pozisyonlanmas\u0131 da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f senaryosunu destekliyor. CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re, ticari olmayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar AUD\u2019daki net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftada art\u0131rd\u0131. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fck piyasa oyuncular\u0131n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir Avustralya dolar\u0131na oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Teknik tarafta ise 0,7085 civar\u0131ndaki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n yeniden a\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 belirgin bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k i\u015fareti olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlayan fakt\u00f6rleri de g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek gerekiyor. RBA da kendi enflasyon sorunlar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n 2026 1\u00c7 enflasyon verisi %4,2 ile inat\u00e7\u0131 seyrini korudu ve ilave bir RBA faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 masada tutuyor. Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ihtimali, \u015fimdilik Avustralya dolar\u0131na bir taban sa\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik olan emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da belirli bir destek g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin demir cevheri vadeli i\u015flemleri, Pekin\u2019de yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelen te\u015fvik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri e\u015fli\u011finde ge\u00e7en hafta 105 dolar\/ton seviyesinden dengelenip tepki verdi. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131ndan gelen bu temel destek, paritenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 net bi\u00e7imde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmekte neden zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesini dikkate alarak, 0,6980\u2019deki ilk deste\u011fin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete maruziyet sa\u011flarken maksimum riski de ba\u015ftan tan\u0131mlar; \u00c7in kaynakl\u0131 te\u015fvik haberlerinin beklenmedik bir ralli yaratmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131 bu \u00f6nemlidir. Tarihsel olarak 0,6950 alt\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011finden, opsiyonlar bu b\u00f6lgeye y\u00f6nelik pozisyon almak i\u00e7in temkinli bir y\u00f6ntem sunuyor.<\/p>\n
Daha n\u00fcansl\u0131 bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olarak, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftada ay\u0131 sat\u0131m spreadi (bear put spread) etkili olabilir. 0,7000 civar\u0131nda bir put al\u0131p e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak 0,6900 gibi daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 bir put satmak, i\u015flemin toplam maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu, dramatik bir \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften ziyade 0,6928 hedefine do\u011fru kademeli bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcz\u00fclme bekleniyorsa uygun bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n
Alternatif olarak, mevcut konsolidasyonun s\u00fcrece\u011fine inan\u0131l\u0131yorsa, \u201cparan\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda\u201d bir strangle sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 uygulanabilir. Bu, 0,7100 direncinin \u00fczerinde bir kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 al\u0131m (call) ve 0,6950 deste\u011finin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu satmay\u0131 i\u00e7erir. AUD\/USD bu daha geni\u015f bant i\u00e7inde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece, zaman de\u011fer kayb\u0131ndan (time decay) getiri sa\u011flanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz \u015foku ve \u015fahin Fed, AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7000 \u00fczerinde s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm a\u015fa\u011f\u0131. 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA alt\u0131nda teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; 0,6928\u20130,6832 hedefte. RBA \u015fahinli\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. Opsiyon: 0,6980 alt\u0131 put\/bear spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49770","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49770"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49770\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49770"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49770"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49770"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}