\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 (PBoC) Kredi Ana Faiz Oranlar\u0131n\u0131 (Loan Prime Rate – LPR) de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi; bir y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi %3,00\u2019te, be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k LPR\u2019yi ise %3,50\u2019de b\u0131rakt\u0131. Karar\u0131n, \u00c7in riskine y\u00f6nelik yayg\u0131n bir g\u00f6sterge olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok az ya da hi\u00e7 etkisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi; AUD\/USD paritesi g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde %0,95 y\u00fckseli\u015fle 0,7015 seviyesinde i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. \u00c7in, bankac\u0131l\u0131k kredilerine referans olarak LPR\u2019yi ayl\u0131k belirlerken, PBoC\u2019nin Para Politikas\u0131 Komitesi \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir toplan\u0131yor; ayr\u0131ca merkez bankas\u0131, tamamen dalgal\u0131 bir kur rejimi yerine g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u201cfix\u201d arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131yla Renminbi\u2019yi ABD Dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00f6netiyor.<\/p>\n
Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan AUD\/USD, 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n ve Bollinger orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken, 14 g\u00fcnl\u00fck G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi (RSI) orta 30\u2019lara do\u011fru geriledi. 0,7080\u20130,7085 b\u00f6lgesi diren\u00e7 olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, \u00fcst Bollinger band\u0131 0,7212 civar\u0131nda yer ald\u0131; destek ise alt banda yak\u0131n \u015fekilde yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,6955 seviyesinde bulunuyor. Ayr\u0131 olarak, PBoC\u2019nin ara\u00e7 setinin yedi g\u00fcnl\u00fck ters repo faizi, Orta Vadeli Kredi Kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (MLF), d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131 m\u00fcdahalesi ve Zorunlu Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (RRR) i\u00e7erdi\u011fi belirtildi; \u00c7in\u2019de 19 \u00f6zel banka bulundu\u011fu, en b\u00fcy\u00fckler aras\u0131nda WeBank ve MYbank\u2019in g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, Kredi Ana Faiz Oranlar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutarak te\u015fvik konusunda temkinli bir duru\u015fa i\u015faret etti. Bu karar, son verilerin May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretiminin yaln\u0131zca %5,6 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve ekonomik toparlanman\u0131n par\u00e7al\u0131 seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesinin ard\u0131ndan geldi. Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan, en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan daha agresif bir gev\u015feme ad\u0131m\u0131 gelmemesi, yak\u0131n vadede Avustralya ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in potansiyel bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bunun Avustralya dolar\u0131n\u0131n potansiyelini s\u0131n\u0131rlayan bir unsur olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019de daha zay\u0131f te\u015fvik, kilit emtialara olan talebi do\u011frudan etkiliyor; demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden ton ba\u015f\u0131na 110 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na geriledi\u011fini, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 140 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011funu not ediyoruz. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, AUD\/USD paritesi i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir y\u00fckseli\u015f senaryosu olu\u015fturmay\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu temel arka plan \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AUD\/USD\u2019de ya yatay bir konsolidasyon ya da kademeli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. AUD\/USD bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen volatilite m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir d\u00fczey olan %8,5 civar\u0131nda seyrediyor; bu da zaman de\u011ferindeki erimeden faydalanan, \u00f6rne\u011fin al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi stratejileri cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. \u015eu a\u015famada al\u0131m opsiyonu satman\u0131n veya ay\u0131 call spreadi kurman\u0131n daha elveri\u015fli bir risk-getiri profili sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Teknik tarafta AUD\/USD, \u015fu anda 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck basit hareketli ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131nda zorlan\u0131yor; bu ortalaman\u0131n 0,6720 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011fu ve \u00f6nemli bir diren\u00e7 seviyesi olu\u015fturdu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. Bu seviyede veya \u00fczerinde kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131, vade olarak ise Temmuz ortas\u0131\u2013sonu d\u00f6neminin hedeflenmesini de\u011ferlendirebiliriz. 0,6580\u2019deki yak\u0131n deste\u011fin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, daha derin bir geri \u00e7ekilme alan\u0131 a\u00e7arak bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
PBoC LPR\u2019yi sabit tuttu; te\u015fvik zay\u0131f, \u00c7in verileri k\u0131r\u0131lgan: AUD\u2019a r\u00fczg\u00e2r tersine d\u00f6nebilir. AUD\/USD 0,7015; teknik bask\u0131 s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: 0,7085 diren\u00e7, 0,6955 destek; vol %8,5.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47788,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49767"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49767\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47788"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}