USD\/CAD haftaya Asya seans\u0131nda daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ba\u015flad\u0131; 1,4170-1,4175 band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6ren parite, ge\u00e7en cuma g\u00f6r\u00fclen zirveye ve Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine yak\u0131n seyrediyor. ABD dolar\u0131, May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesinden s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir geri \u00e7ekilme ya\u015fasa da, artan jeopolitik gerilimlerin deste\u011fiyle dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu. \u0130ran, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019i ate\u015fkesi ihlal etmekle su\u00e7lad\u0131; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131 ve haberlere g\u00f6re Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n tehditlerinin ard\u0131ndan Washington ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri durdurdu. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, dolar\u0131 destekledi.<\/p>\n
Kanada dolar\u0131 ise, yava\u015flayan i\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (BoC) ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (Fed) k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fcvercin duru\u015fu fiyatlan\u0131rken bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. Piyasalar, BoC\u2019nin 2026 sonlar\u0131na kadar faizleri sabit tutmas\u0131n\u0131 beklerken, Fed\u2019in son projeksiyonlar\u0131 y\u0131l sonu faizini %3,8\u2019e i\u015faret ediyor; bu da \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f ihtimalini ima ediyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, k\u0131r\u0131lgan ABD-\u0130ran ge\u00e7ici bar\u0131\u015f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 y\u00fckselerek emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimine bir miktar destek sa\u011flad\u0131. G\u00f6zler, pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc ilerleyen saatlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada t\u00fcketici enflasyonu verisine \u00e7evrildi.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik tansiyonun y\u00fckselmesi ve g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesiyle ABD dolar\u0131nda s\u00fcregelen bir g\u00fc\u00e7lenme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. USD\/CAD, 2025 ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen seviyeleri test ediyor. VIX oynakl\u0131k endeksinin yak\u0131n zamanda %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde s\u0131\u00e7rayarak 22\u2019nin \u00fczerinde kapanmas\u0131yla, riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin devam etmesi muhtemel. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD\u2019deki geri \u00e7ekilmelerin al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn temel nedeni, Fed ile BoC aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 fark\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131. ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark, Fed\u2019in bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na daha i\u015faret etmesi ve BoC\u2019nin sabit kalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesiyle 85 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 2024 sonlar\u0131ndan bu yana en geni\u015f seviyeye ula\u015ft\u0131. Faiz fark\u0131, ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve USD\/CAD\u2019i yukar\u0131 itmeye devam etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada taraf\u0131nda, son veriler ekonomideki durgunlu\u011fu teyit ederek merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvercin duru\u015funu destekliyor. Ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan ve Kanada GSYH\u2019sinin nisan ay\u0131nda %0,1 darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steren rapor (\u00fcst \u00fcste ikinci ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f), BoC\u2019nin enflasyondan ziyade b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceleyece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Kanada ekonomisindeki bu temel zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Kanada dolar\u0131 (loonie) i\u00e7in g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir negatif tablo olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
WTI ham petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn varil ba\u015f\u0131na 95 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir ortam normalde Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 destekler. Ancak bu etkinin \u015fu a\u015famada zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f belirleyici; ge\u00e7mi\u015fte (2014-2015 d\u00f6nemi gibi) g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, h\u0131zla de\u011fer kazanan dolar y\u00fcksek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6lgede b\u0131rakabiliyor. Bu nedenle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki g\u00fcc\u00fcn USD\/CAD\u2019deki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini tersine \u00e7evirmesini beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada enflasyon verisi i\u00e7in piyasa beklentileri zay\u0131f bir okumaya i\u015faret ederken, bunun Kanada dolar\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni bir kataliz\u00f6r olabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyon verisi, BoC\u2019nin pasif duru\u015funu teyit edebilir ve paritede yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir. Beklenen y\u00fckseli\u015f momentumundan yararlanmak amac\u0131yla, Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli USD\/CAD out-of-the-money al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n alarak 1,4300 seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir harekete pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Jeopolitik risk t\u0131rman\u0131yor, USD\/CAD 1,4170 civar\u0131nda 2025 zirvesine yak\u0131n: G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar, Fed-BoC faiz fark\u0131 ve zay\u0131f Kanada b\u00fcy\u00fcmesiyle destekleniyor; petrol art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131, Kanada enflasyonu kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47686,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49765","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49765","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49765"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49765\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49765"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49765"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49765"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}