WTI, ABD ham petrol g\u00f6stergesi, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerine 1 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fckseli\u015f bo\u015flu\u011fuyla ba\u015flad\u0131; 78 dolar\u0131 yeniden test ederken erken i\u015flemlerde yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 y\u00fckseldi. Daha sonra %1,15 art\u0131da kalarak 77 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutundu; zira \u0130srail ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019\u0131 da i\u00e7eren yeniden alevlenen \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatmas\u0131yla arz riskleri tekrar g\u00fcndeme geldi. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump, kapanman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD\u2019nin Tahran\u2019\u0131 \u201cdaha sert\u201d vuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi ve ayr\u0131ca L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u0130ran destekli Hizbullah\u2019a de\u011findi; bunun ard\u0131ndan \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019deki ABD g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinden \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en hafta \u0130ran ile ABD, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ablukas\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen bir mutabakat zapt\u0131 imzalayarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n sivil n\u00fckleer program\u0131na ili\u015fkin 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Petrol piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan WTI, ABD\u2019de \u00fcretilen ve Cushing \u00fczerinden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lan hafif ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck k\u00fck\u00fcrtl\u00fc bir ham petrold\u00fcr; fiyat\u0131 arz-talep dengesi, jeopolitik kesintiler, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar, OPEC kararlar\u0131 ve ABD Dolar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan belirlenir. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcnleri API ve ertesi g\u00fcn EIA taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan haftal\u0131k stok verileri fiyatlar\u0131 hareketlendirebilir; sonu\u00e7lar genellikle birbirine benzer ve zaman\u0131n %75\u2019inde %1 i\u00e7inde kal\u0131r; EIA daha g\u00fcvenilir kabul edilir. OPEC, y\u0131lda iki kez yap\u0131lan toplant\u0131larda kotalar\u0131 belirleyen 12 \u00fcyeden olu\u015fur; OPEC+ ise Rusya dahil 10 OPEC d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeyi ekler.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel enerji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik bir bo\u011faz olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden kapat\u0131lmas\u0131yla WTI fiyatlar\u0131nda s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. D\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz\u0131n\u0131n be\u015fte birinden fazlas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen yakla\u015f\u0131k 21 milyon varil petrol bu su yolundan ge\u00e7iyor. Piyasan\u0131n kayda de\u011fer bir arz kesintisi riskinden endi\u015fe duymas\u0131 yerinde.<\/p>\n
ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki sertle\u015fen s\u00f6ylem dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda ham petrol opsiyonlar\u0131nda ima edilen oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmesini bekliyoruz. Bu da uzun straddle veya strangle gibi fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131ndan kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flamay\u0131 hedefleyen stratejileri, bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan yararlanmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan potansiyel olarak cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. Bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131, bu gerilimin k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme kavu\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
WTI i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz; 80 dolar seviyesinin test edilmesi yak\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. 2019\u2019daki tanker sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi benzer Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinde bir g\u00fcnde %15\u2019lik fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131, bu b\u00f6lgedeki tehditlere fiyatlar\u0131n sert tepki verdi\u011fine dair tarihi bir emsal sunuyor. Son EIA verilerine g\u00f6re ABD ticari ham petrol stoklar\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n alt\u0131na do\u011fru e\u011filim g\u00f6sterirken, arzda ya\u015fanacak herhangi bir ger\u00e7ek kesinti an\u0131nda hissedilecektir.<\/p>\n
Odak noktam\u0131z, durumun \u015fekillenmesine zaman tan\u0131mak i\u00e7in \u00f6zellikle A\u011fustos ve Eyl\u00fcl vadeli kontratlarda yak\u0131n vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 olmal\u0131. Call almak veya bo\u011fa call spread kurmak, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kald\u0131ra\u00e7l\u0131 maruziyet sa\u011flarken azami riski \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bu, uzun vadeli i\u015flem (futures) pozisyonunun s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z riskini almadan olas\u0131 bir arz \u015fokuna pozisyonlanmak i\u00e7in ihtiyatl\u0131 bir yoldur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kapanmas\u0131yla WTI Asya\u2019da %2 s\u0131\u00e7ray\u0131p 77 dolar \u00fczerinde tutundu; Trump\u2019\u0131n sertle\u015fen mesajlar\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi arz \u015foku riskini art\u0131rarak oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve 80 dolar testini g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49761\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}