Sterlin, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya erken i\u015flemlerinde bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi belirsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131yla GBP\/USD 1,3210 civar\u0131na geriledi. Haberlere g\u00f6re Ba\u015fbakan Sir Keir Starmer\u2019\u0131n bir istifa takvimi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bekleniyor; bu geli\u015fme Britanya\u2019y\u0131 on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde yedinci ba\u015fbakana g\u00f6t\u00fcrecek bir s\u00fcreci g\u00fcndeme getirirken, Andy Burnham\u2019\u0131n onun yerini almas\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir. Hamle, ABD\u2019den gelen yeni man\u015fetlerin ard\u0131ndan geldi; ayr\u0131ca bir Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k bakan\u0131n\u0131n siyasi zorluklara i\u015faret etmesi, \u201cCable\u201dda k\u0131sa vadeli sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta g\u00f6sterge faizi Kevin Warsh\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkan olarak ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan %3,50 – %3,75 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sabit tutmas\u0131 sonras\u0131, \u015fahin Fed mesajlar\u0131ndan destek buldu; Warsh, kararlar\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Vadeli i\u015flem piyasalar\u0131 Eyl\u00fcl i\u00e7in 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlarken, daha erken \u2014 hatta gelecek ay \u2014 bir hamle ihtimali de k\u0131smen masada. Ayr\u0131 olarak sterlin, 886 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar uzanan ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en eski para birimi olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor ve 2022 verilerine g\u00f6re g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 630 milyar dolara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k gelen i\u015flemlerle k\u00fcresel FX hacminde %12 payla en \u00e7ok i\u015flem g\u00f6ren d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc para birimi konumunda; GBP\/USD FX cirosunun %11\u2019ini, GBP\/JPY %3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc ve EUR\/GBP %2\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor. Sterlinin ihra\u00e7\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE), faiz politikas\u0131 yoluyla yakla\u015f\u0131k %2 enflasyon hedefini g\u00f6zetiyor.<\/p>\n
Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi belirsizlik nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda GBP\/USD paritesinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ba\u015fbakan Starmer\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 istifas\u0131, genellikle bir para birimini bask\u0131layan belirgin bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k yarat\u0131yor. Bu bask\u0131, paritenin 1,3200 seviyesi etraf\u0131nda zorlanmas\u0131nda \u015fimdiden g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131na pozisyon al\u0131yoruz ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n da ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde hareket etmesini \u00f6neriyoruz. GBP\/USD opsiyonlar\u0131nda 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite, piyasa tedirginli\u011fini yans\u0131tarak ge\u00e7en hafta yakla\u015f\u0131k %7\u2019den %11\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131. Bu, 2016 Brexit oylamas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen volatilite s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msat\u0131yor ve koruma sat\u0131n alman\u0131n \u015fu a\u015famada ihtiyatl\u0131 olabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Paritenin di\u011fer taraf\u0131nda ise ABD dolar\u0131 kal\u0131c\u0131 bir g\u00fc\u00e7 sergiliyor. Yeni y\u00f6netim alt\u0131nda Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu, \u201cgreenback\u201d i\u00e7in ba\u015fl\u0131ca itici g\u00fc\u00e7. CME Group verilerine yans\u0131yan mevcut piyasa fiyatlamas\u0131, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %70\u2019in \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu Fed g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD makro verileriyle de destekleniyor. Son istihdam raporu, 250 binlik beklentiyi a\u015fan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, ge\u00e7en ayki T\u00dcFE verileri \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun %3,1 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu rakamlar, Fed\u2019e daha s\u0131k\u0131 politika yoluyla fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nceleme konusunda net bir alan tan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k ekonomisi durgunluk i\u015faretleri veriyor; bu da BoE\u2019nin manevra alan\u0131n\u0131 muhtemelen s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. ONS\u2019nin son verileri, 2026\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k GSYH\u2019sinin yatay seyretti\u011fini ortaya koyarken; enflasyon %2,3\u2019e kadar gerileyerek BoE hedefin\u0259 \u00e7ok daha yak\u0131n bir d\u00fczeye indi. \u015eahin bir Fed ile hareket alan\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 bir BoE aras\u0131ndaki bu para politikas\u0131 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha zay\u0131f bir sterlin i\u00e7in net bir zemin olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Bu nedenle d\u00fc\u015fen GBP\/USD\u2019den fayda sa\u011flayacak stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. 1 ayl\u0131k ve 3 ayl\u0131k sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketlerden do\u011frudan getiri elde ederken riski s\u0131n\u0131rlaman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, yaz boyunca Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k\u2019taki siyasi geli\u015fmeler \u015fekillenirken beklenen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe pozisyon almay\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlinde alarm: Starmer\u2019\u0131n olas\u0131 istifas\u0131 siyasi belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131rken GBP\/USD 1,3210\u2019a gev\u015fedi. \u015eahin Fed ve beklenen faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; volatilite y\u00fckselirken downside risk \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47642,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49760","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49760"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49760\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49760"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49760"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49760"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}