Yen, ABD\u2013\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerinin hafta sonu \u00e7\u00f6kmesinin ard\u0131ndan Asya haftas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda yeniden bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda. ABD dolar\u0131, g\u00fcvenli liman talebindeki tazelenmeyle destek buluyor. \u0130ranl\u0131 m\u00fczakereciler, Ba\u015fkan Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 yeniden vurma tehdidinin ard\u0131ndan masadan kalkt\u0131. Tahran, Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki sald\u0131rganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Fox News, Trump\u2019tan su yolunu kontrol alt\u0131na alma tehdidi de dahil olmak \u00fczere ek uyar\u0131lar geldi\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
G\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, USD\/JPY paritesini ge\u00e7en haftaki 161,80 civar\u0131ndaki zirveye yeniden yakla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131; bu seviye Temmuz 2024\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczey. Ancak daha fazla y\u00fckseli\u015f, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz m\u00fcdahalesi riskiyle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor; bu da JPY\u2019ye destek sa\u011flayabilir. Bu zemin, son d\u00f6nemde Japonya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan (BoJ) gelen \u015fahin tonlu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ve Nisan toplant\u0131s\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131ndaki sinyallerle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor.<\/p>\n
Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan jeopolitik gerilimi, dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesindeki ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu g\u00fcvenli liman ak\u0131m\u0131, USD\/JPY\u2019yi ge\u00e7en haftadan kalan kritik diren\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olan 161,80 seviyesine do\u011fru itiyor. Bir ayl\u0131k opsiyonlarda ima edilen volatilite buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak %14,8\u2019e s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131; bu da yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n sert bir harekete ili\u015fkin belirsizli\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bu arka planda, kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 162,00 ve 162,50 civar\u0131nda olan USD\/JPY al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, jeopolitik endi\u015felerin piyasaya y\u00f6n vermeye devam etmesi halinde ilave yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc potansiyeli yakalamam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flar. Temel avantaj, azami zarar\u0131n \u00f6denen primle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olmas\u0131; bu da m\u00fcdahale kaynakl\u0131 ani ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sunar.<\/p>\n
Y\u00f6n konusunda emin olmadan anlaml\u0131 bir hareket bekleyenler i\u00e7in uzun straddle stratejisi de\u011ferlendirilebilir. Bu, ayn\u0131 kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan hem al\u0131m (call) hem sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu almay\u0131 i\u00e7erir ve fiyat\u0131n her iki y\u00f6nde de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir sal\u0131n\u0131m yapmas\u0131 halinde kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar. 2022\u2019deki \u00f6nceki m\u00fcdahaleler s\u0131ras\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnde 3-5 yenlik hareketler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc; bu da y\u00fcksek volatilite beklentisi i\u00e7in uygulanabilir bir stratejiye i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n tedirginli\u011fi enerji fiyatlar\u0131na da yans\u0131yor; Brent petrol vadeli i\u015flemleri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 \u00fczerinden arz kesintisi endi\u015feleriyle varil ba\u015f\u0131na 98 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi. Son CFTC verileri, yen \u00fczerinde spek\u00fclatif net k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n tarihi zirvelere yak\u0131n seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu kalabal\u0131k pozisyonlanma, ister askeri t\u0131rmanma ister s\u00fcrpriz bir m\u00fcdahale olsun, yeni bir kataliz\u00f6rde agresif bir fiyat hareketini besleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca 162,00 al\u0131m opsiyonunu sat\u0131n al\u0131p 163,50 al\u0131m opsiyonunu satmak gibi bo\u011fa call spread\u2019lerini kullanmay\u0131 tercih ediyoruz. Bu yap\u0131, potansiyel k\u00e2r\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak giri\u015f maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr; 162,00 \u00fczerindeki m\u00fcdahale olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu makul bir \u00f6d\u00fcnle\u015fimdir. Bu strateji, BoJ\u2019un fiilen olu\u015fturdu\u011fu \u00e7ok ger\u00e7ek bir tavan\u0131 kabul ederken, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kademeli bir y\u00fckseli\u015fe pozisyon almam\u0131za olanak tan\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Orta Do\u011fu gerilimiyle dolar g\u00fcvenli liman r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 yakalad\u0131, yen bask\u0131da. USD\/JPY 161,80 direncine ko\u015fuyor; m\u00fcdahale riski tavan. Volatilite s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131, opsiyonlarla 162-163,50 band\u0131 hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49801,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49759","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49759","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49759"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49759\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49759"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49759"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49759"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}