Avustralya dolar\u0131, Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Asya i\u015flemlerinin erken saatlerinde ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda geriledi; riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n devreye girmesiyle AUD\/USD yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7005 seviyesine indi. Hareket, Donald Trump\u2019\u0131n sava\u015f\u0131n yeniden ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ABD-\u0130ran diplomasisi etraf\u0131nda belirsizliklerin tazelenmesini izledi; bu s\u0131rada JD Vance ge\u00e7ici bir bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda ilk g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc. Tahran\u2019\u0131n da Reuters\u2019a g\u00f6re H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 yeniden kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekti. Uzayan bir Orta Do\u011fu \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler s\u00fcrerken, g\u00fcvenli liman talebi \u201cgreenback\u201de destek verdi.<\/p>\n
ABD para politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler de dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Piyasa oyuncular\u0131, \u0130ran \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131yla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentilerini beslemesiyle daha s\u0131k\u0131 Fed politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131; faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n aylar i\u00e7inde ba\u015flayabilece\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fck fiyatlama g\u00fc\u00e7lendi. CME FedWatch verileri, Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131na piyasalar\u0131n %90\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k verdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor; bu oran Fed karar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce %61 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Avustralya taraf\u0131nda ise AUD, RBA faiz ayarlar\u0131na ve emtia dinamiklerine duyarl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor; 2021\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k 118 milyar dolar de\u011ferindeki demir cevheri ihracat\u0131 ve \u00c7in talebi, d\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131nda temel belirleyiciler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran hatt\u0131ndaki jeopolitik belirsizli\u011fin yeniden y\u00fckselmesiyle, risk duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek para birimlerinde daha savunmac\u0131 bir duru\u015f benimsiyoruz. Avustralya dolar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ABD dolar\u0131 gibi g\u00fcvenli liman varl\u0131klara y\u00f6nelmesiyle \u00f6zellikle k\u0131r\u0131lgan g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. AUD\/USD paritesinde bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini, \u00f6zellikle de psikolojik \u00f6neme sahip 0,7000 seviyesi \u00e7evresinde, bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131\u015fan patikalar\u0131yla da g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Enflasyonun %3,8\u2019e i\u015faret etti\u011fi son ABD T\u00dcFE verisi, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini peki\u015ftirdi; fed fon vadeli i\u015flemleri art\u0131k Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na kadar bir art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %92 olarak fiyatl\u0131yor. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k Avustralya\u2019da son enflasyon %2,9 ile daha y\u00f6netilebilir seviyede; bu da Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na (RBA) bekle-g\u00f6r politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Aussie dolar\u0131 destekleyen temeller de zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flaman\u0131n talebi s\u0131n\u0131rlayaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle demir cevheri vadeli fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n son bir ayda %8 d\u00fc\u015ferek ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Bu, Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n ihracat gelirlerini do\u011frudan etkiliyor ve para biriminin de\u011feri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019den gelen son veriler de cesaret verici de\u011fil. May\u0131s ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 %4,5\u2019e yava\u015flayarak piyasa beklentilerinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve ekonomik momentumun zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti. \u00c7in\u2019in zay\u0131flamas\u0131, Avustralya emtialar\u0131na daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck talep anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu da AUD i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda, d\u00fc\u015fen bir AUD\/USD\u2019den fayda sa\u011flayan stratejilere odaklan\u0131yoruz. 0,7000\u2019in alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131 se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz; bu, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir pozisyon i\u00e7in net ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir risk profili sa\u011flar. Z\u0131mni volatilite \u015fimdiden ge\u00e7en ayki %9 seviyesinden %12\u2019nin \u00fczerine y\u00fckseldi; bu da piyasan\u0131n ola\u011fand\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa davran\u0131\u015f\u0131, 2003 Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk safhas\u0131 gibi \u00f6nceki riskten ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f d\u00f6nemlerini an\u0131msat\u0131yor. O d\u00f6nemde AUD\/USD paritesi, sermayenin agresif \u015fekilde ABD dolar\u0131na akmas\u0131yla birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Tarihsel deneyim, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da anlaml\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde \u201cgreenback\u201din g\u00fcvenli liman cazibesinin piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinde bask\u0131n olma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u015eok geli\u015fme: Jeopolitik risk t\u0131rman\u0131nca AUD\/USD 0,7005\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz belirsizli\u011fi ve Fed\u2019in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirirken, demir cevheri geriliyor, \u00c7in zay\u0131f; Aussie k\u0131r\u0131lgan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47780,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49758"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49758\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49758"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49758"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}