\u0130ran, ate\u015fkesin ABD ve \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan ihlal edildi\u011fini \u00f6ne s\u00fcrerek ve L\u00fcbnan\u2019da s\u00fcren \u0130srail sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bu ad\u0131m\u0131n tetikleyicisi olarak g\u00f6stererek H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Duyuru, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan en \u00f6nemli deniz g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131ndan biri etraf\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi yeniden art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu Deniz Kuvvetleri, t\u00fcm gemileri H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015fmamalar\u0131 konusunda uyard\u0131 ve \u015fu ifadeyi kulland\u0131: \u201cH\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019na yakla\u015fmay\u0131n; aksi takdirde g\u00fcvenli\u011finiz tehlikeye girecektir.\u201d \u0130ran, ad\u0131m\u0131 L\u00fcbnan\u2019da devam etti\u011fini belirtti\u011fi \u0130srail faaliyetlerine yan\u0131t olarak \u00e7er\u00e7evelerken, durumun ak\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 korudu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00fcnya g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birini ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda an\u0131nda ve sert bir s\u0131\u00e7rama bekliyoruz. Buna y\u00f6nelik olarak hem Brent hem de WTI ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerinde en yak\u0131n vadeli (front-month) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) alarak pozisyonlan\u0131yoruz. Piyasa, bu \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bir arz \u015fokunu fiyatlam\u0131\u015f de\u011fil; bu durum, ta\u015f\u0131nan hacimden g\u00fcnl\u00fck 20 milyon varilin \u00fczerinde bir miktar\u0131n devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
Tarihsel olarak, daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kesintiler bile kayda de\u011fer fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na neden oldu. \u00d6rne\u011fin 2019\u2019da Suudi petrol tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 Brent ham petrol vadeli i\u015flemlerini tek g\u00fcnde yakla\u015f\u0131k %20 y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Mevcut geli\u015fme, k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok daha do\u011frudan ve s\u00fcreklilik riski ta\u015f\u0131yan bir tehdit. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki i\u015flem seanslar\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecekler i\u00e7in bu tarihsel tepkiyi bir \u201ctaban senaryo\u201d olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasada korkunun h\u0131zla artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz; bu da volatilitede uzun pozisyonu cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. CBOE Volatilite Endeksi\u2019nin (VIX) ge\u00e7en hafta 16\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle, endeksin jeopolitik riskin t\u00fcm varl\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131flar\u0131nda yeniden fiyatlanmas\u0131 sonucu h\u0131zla 30\u2019un \u00fczerine t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle VIX al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131yoruz. Bu, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 bir korunma (hedge) ve y\u00fckselen belirsizli\u011fe do\u011frudan bir bahis niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n
Daha y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yarataca\u011f\u0131 enflasyon \u015foku k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkileyece\u011finden, genel piyasaya kar\u015f\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar olu\u015fturuyoruz. SPDR S&P 500 ETF\u2019si (SPY) \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (put) al\u0131yor ve \u00f6zellikle yak\u0131t maliyetlerine y\u00fcksek derecede duyarl\u0131 sekt\u00f6rleri hedefliyoruz. JETS ETF ile izlenen havayolu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, ba\u015fl\u0131ca \u201cshort\u201d hedeflerimizden biri.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bu istikrars\u0131zl\u0131ktan fayda sa\u011flayan sekt\u00f6rlere maruziyetimizi art\u0131r\u0131yoruz. \u00dcreticilerin y\u00fckselen petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan beklenmedik (windfall) k\u00e2rlar elde edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcyle, XLE gibi enerji sekt\u00f6r\u00fc ETF\u2019lerinde al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131 (call) al\u0131yoruz. Ayr\u0131ca, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da artan askeri gerilimin \u00fcr\u00fcn ve hizmetlerine talebi do\u011frudan y\u00fckseltmesi nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fck savunma sanayii y\u00fcklenicilerindeki pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 da art\u0131r\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kritik geli\u015fme: \u0130ran, ate\u015fkes ihlali iddias\u0131yla H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 kapatt\u0131. G\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol\u00fcn be\u015fte biri riskte; Brent\/WTI\u2019da sert s\u0131\u00e7rama, VIX\u2019te 30+ beklentisi. SPY put, havayolu short; enerji ve savunmaya long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47704,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49757","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49757","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49757"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49757\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47704"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49757"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49757"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49757"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}