Brent, 28 \u015eubat\u2019ta \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana neredeyse d\u00f6rt ay boyunca biriken risk priminin hemen tamam\u0131n\u0131 geri vererek yeniden 80 dolar civar\u0131nda, WTI ise 77 dolar band\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ham petrol %45\u2019in \u00fczerinde y\u00fckselmi\u015f, zirvede dated Brent kargolar\u0131 120 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131; ancak fiyatlar, piyasan\u0131n ABD-\u0130ran mutabakat zapt\u0131n\u0131 (MoU) \u201ctehlike ge\u00e7ti\u201d \u015feklinde okumas\u0131yla geri \u00e7ekildi. Brent haftal\u0131k bazda yakla\u015f\u0131k %8 ekside ve 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerinde; ABD hisse senetleri ise rekor seviyede. D\u00fcnyadaki ham petrol\u00fcn yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birinin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtiliyor; buna kar\u015f\u0131n tanker takip verileri, orta kanal\u0131n kapal\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve temizlenmesi gereken tahmini 80 may\u0131n bulundu\u011funu i\u015faret ediyor. Trafik kuzey ve g\u00fcney yan rotalardan ilerlerken, ABD Merkez Komutanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 (CENTCOM) liman k\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131 ile uyar\u0131lar\u0131 g\u00fcncelliyor.<\/p>\n
MoU, Versailles\u2019da ve Tahran\u2019da imzalanan 14 maddelik ikili bir belge. Oysa \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmadaki s\u0131cak ba\u015fl\u0131klardan biri L\u00fcbnan; \u0130srail burada Hizbullah\u2019la \u00e7at\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan teknik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n heyetini g\u00f6ndermemesi nedeniyle ba\u015flamad\u0131. MoU\u2019nun 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck takvimi ise Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en az be\u015f kez ilan edilip bozuldu\u011fu ve yeniden devreye al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtilen L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesi zemininde ilerliyor. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda ham petrol, bir ate\u015fkes duyurusunun ard\u0131ndan tek seansta yakla\u015f\u0131k %16 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, ard\u0131ndan yeni sald\u0131r\u0131lar gelmi\u015fti; May\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131na gelindi\u011finde Brent bir g\u00fcnde %6 y\u00fckselerek 110 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, WTI 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti ve Dow 500 puan\u0131n \u00fczerinde geriledi. Beyrut yetkilileri, \u0130srail\u2019in L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki \u201cen \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl ikinci g\u00fcn\u00fc\u201d olarak nitelenen olaylar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 47 ki\u015finin \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirdi; ayr\u0131ca Nisan\u2019daki ayr\u0131 bir sald\u0131r\u0131 dalgas\u0131nda 350\u2019den fazla ki\u015finin hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Piyasan\u0131n sava\u015f primini satt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; Brent ham petrol vadeli kontratlar\u0131 80 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. CBOE Ham Petrol Volatilite Endeksi (OVX) 28 civar\u0131nda, be\u015f ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi; bu da opsiyon fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ucuz oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu tablo, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n yeni ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131 konusunda fazla rahat oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sahadaki ger\u00e7ekler bu sakinlikle \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fm\u00fcyor. Bu sabahki denizcilik istihbarat verileri, H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan tanker ge\u00e7i\u015flerinin \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma \u00f6ncesi ortalaman\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 %30 alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu, normalle\u015fmi\u015f bir arz rotas\u0131 de\u011fil; Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (IRGC) y\u00f6netti\u011fi, istenildi\u011fi anda \u201cvanan\u0131n kapat\u0131labilece\u011fi\u201d k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 bir hat.<\/p>\n
Bu rehavet, Nisan ba\u015f\u0131ndaki tabloya \u00e7ok benziyor: benzer bir ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 fiyatlarda %16\u2019l\u0131k \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f, ard\u0131ndan sert bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Son EIA raporu, 4,2 milyon varillik s\u00fcrpriz ham petrol stok \u00e7ekili\u015fini g\u00f6sterdi; bu da temel piyasa dengesinin zaten s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu noktada olas\u0131 herhangi bir arz kesintisi, fiyatlar \u00fczerinde daha da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f bir etki yarat\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Temel sorun, bu anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 tarafl\u0131 bir sava\u015fta iki taraf aras\u0131nda imzalanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. \u0130srailli yetkililer bug\u00fcn, 20 Haziran\u2019da, L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki askeri duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fini belirtirken, bu a\u00e7\u0131klama anla\u015fman\u0131n ruhuyla do\u011frudan \u00e7eli\u015fiyor. Bu da \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yeniden alevlenme riskinin son derece y\u00fcksek kald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair net bir sinyal.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, 80 dolar seviyesinde sava\u015f riskinin kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da satman\u0131n hata oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. A\u011fustos vadeli, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck deltal\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ucuzken almak, fiyatlarda olas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u201cgeri s\u0131\u00e7rama\u201dya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in cazip g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tarih, 2019\u2019daki Suudi tesislerine y\u00f6nelik drone sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 gibi jeopolitik \u015foklar\u0131n, fiyatlar\u0131 tek g\u00fcnde %15\u2019in \u00fczerinde yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yabildi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Brent\u2019in yeniden 90 dolara, hatta 100 dolara y\u00f6nelmesini tetikleyebilecek unsurlar a\u00e7\u0131k ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da. Bo\u011faz\u2019da ya\u015fanacak herhangi bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma, k\u0131r\u0131lgan L\u00fcbnan ate\u015fkesinin \u00e7\u00f6kmesi veya \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri yava\u015flatmas\u0131, piyasan\u0131n bu riski derhal yeniden fiyatlamas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r. Bar\u0131\u015f\u0131n garanti oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131m\u0131yla kalabal\u0131\u011fa kat\u0131lmak yerine, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck volatilite d\u00f6nemini uzun pozisyon maruziyeti in\u015fa etmek i\u00e7in kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Petrolde f\u0131rt\u0131na dinmedi: Brent 80$, WTI 77$\u2019ye inerken piyasa sava\u015f primini sildi. Ancak H\u00fcrm\u00fcz ge\u00e7i\u015fleri %30 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, 80 may\u0131n iddias\u0131 ve L\u00fcbnan riski s\u00fcr\u00fcyor; d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck OVX f\u0131rsat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47848,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49756"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49756\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47848"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}