{"id":49755,"date":"2026-06-20T03:10:50","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T03:10:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/fed-boc-farki-acilirken-kanada-dolari-14-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-indi-petrolden-liderligi-altin-devraldi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-20T03:10:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T03:10:50","slug":"fed-boc-farki-acilirken-kanada-dolari-14-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-indi-petrolden-liderligi-altin-devraldi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/fed-boc-farki-acilirken-kanada-dolari-14-ayin-en-dusuk-seviyesine-indi-petrolden-liderligi-altin-devraldi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed\u2013BoC fark\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131rken Kanada dolar\u0131 14 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indi; petrolden liderli\u011fi alt\u0131n devrald\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kanada dolar\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu gerilimlerinin ham petrol\u00fc destekli tutmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeni bir 14 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledi. B\u00f6ylece ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n son yedi haftan\u0131n alt\u0131s\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f uzad\u0131. \u201cLoonie\u201d ile petrol aras\u0131ndaki uzun s\u00fcredir ge\u00e7erli ba\u011f tersine d\u00f6nd\u00fc; g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketler aras\u0131ndaki kayan korelasyon son aylarda negatife ge\u00e7ti. Daha etkili emtia kanal\u0131 ise alt\u0131n oldu: Kanada\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fcreticisi konumu, alt\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 hafta \u00fcst \u00fcste gerileyip son rekorunun belirgin \u015fekilde alt\u0131na inmesinin ard\u0131ndan para birimini k\u0131r\u0131lgan b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Fed faizi %3,75\u2019te tuttu ve dot plot\u2019u yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131; piyasalar 2026\u2019da olas\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor. Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoC) ise %2,25\u2019te kald\u0131 ve bekle-g\u00f6r duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. G\u00f6zler Pazartesi 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Kanada May\u0131s T\u00dcFE\u2019sinde (enflasyon %3\u2019e yak\u0131n), ard\u0131ndan Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc Ba\u015fkan Macklem\u2019de olacak. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise Per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de 1\u00c7 GSYH (\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tahmin) ve May\u0131s PCE yay\u0131mlanacak; \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,3 gelmesi bekleniyor. USD\/CAD 1,4200 seviyesini zorluyor; s\u0131radaki seviyeler 1,4250 ve 1,4300. Destekler 1,4100 ve 1,4050\u2019te; kritik e\u015fik 1,4000. Stoch RSI, sert y\u00fckseli\u015f sonras\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesinde.<\/p>\n

CAD’in De\u011fi\u015fen Emtia ve Faiz S\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fclerinin Analizi<\/h3>\n

Kanada dolar\u0131n\u0131 ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011flayan eski oyun plan\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz. WTI ham petrol varil ba\u015f\u0131na 85 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Loonie zay\u0131f; bu da geleneksel ili\u015fkinin \u015fimdilik bozuldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bizim oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ABD ile geni\u015fleyen faiz fark\u0131na ve alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131na kaym\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Para biriminin yeni \u00e7\u0131pas\u0131, belirgin bir ters r\u00fczg\u00e2r yaratan alt\u0131n gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. COMEX alt\u0131n vadeli i\u015flemleri, istikrarl\u0131 \u00e7ok haftal\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan ons ba\u015f\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k 2.285 dolardan kapan\u0131rken, Loonie \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu da k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc Kanada dolar\u0131 stratejilerimiz i\u00e7in kilit bir g\u00f6sterge haline getiriyor.<\/p>\n

D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc duru\u015fumuzun ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc, BoC ile Fed aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcyen politika fark\u0131. ABD ve Kanada 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet tahvili getirileri aras\u0131ndaki fark 150 baz puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak son bir y\u0131l\u0131n en geni\u015f aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu faiz fark\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131may\u0131 \u00e7ok daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor ve USD\/CAD paritesini yukar\u0131 itmeye devam etmeli.<\/p>\n

Pozisyonlanma, \u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Yakla\u015fan Veriler<\/h3>\n

Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fte yaln\u0131z de\u011filiz; son CFTC verileri, spek\u00fclatif net Kanada dolar\u0131 k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 60 bin kontrat\u0131n \u00fczerine \u015fi\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bu yo\u011fun pozisyonlanma, 1,4100 seviyesine do\u011fru keskin bir k\u0131sa vadeli geri \u00e7ekilme riskine kar\u015f\u0131 temkinli olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor; b\u00f6yle bir hareket yeni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar kurmak i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat olabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 i\u00e7in USD\/CAD\u2019de al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu almak veya 1,4250\u2019ye do\u011fru bir harekete oynayan call spread kurmak uygulanabilir bir stratejidir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftan\u0131n kritik ba\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 Pazartesi Kanada T\u00dcFE raporu ve Per\u015fembe ABD PCE enflasyon verisi. Kanada enflasyonunun s\u00fcrpriz \u015fekilde y\u00fcksek gelmesi Loonie\u2019de k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya yol a\u00e7abilse de, ABD PCE verisinin daha belirleyici oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7ekirdek PCE beklendi\u011fi gibi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelirse, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu peki\u015ftirir ve USD\/CAD\u2019in 1,4200 direncini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen kataliz\u00f6r olmas\u0131 muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Petrol 85 dolar \u00fcst\u00fcnde kalsa da Kanada dolar\u0131 14 ay\u0131n dibinde: ba\u011f koptu, belirleyici alt\u0131n ve Fed-BoC faiz fark\u0131. G\u00f6zler T\u00dcFE\/PCE\u2019de; USD\/CAD 1,4200\u2019yi zorluyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49755","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49755"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49755\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}