Avustralya Dolar\u0131, \u015fahin Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n AUD\/USD paritesini 0,7000 seviyesine do\u011fru itmesiyle bu hafta geriledi; hareketin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc Canberra\u2019dan \u00e7ok Washington oldu. Avustralya Merkez Bankas\u0131 (RBA) politika faizini %4,35\u2019te sabit tuttu ancak \u015fahin duru\u015funu koruyarak enflasyonun y\u00fcksek seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve belirgin \u015fekilde h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmayla ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fckselen yak\u0131t ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n mal ve hizmetlere yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, para birimi tepki vermekte zorland\u0131; zira h\u00e2len risk i\u015ftah\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik \u201clikit bir vekil\u201d (proxy) olarak i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Zay\u0131f \u00c7in talebi ve a\u011f\u0131r seyreden demir cevheri piyasas\u0131 Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret hadlerini bask\u0131larken, RBA\u2019n\u0131n projeksiyonlar\u0131 da enflasyonun 2027\u2019ye kadar hedefin \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Gelecek hafta, yurt i\u00e7i verilerle birlikte testler \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 01:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak May\u0131s ayl\u0131k T\u00dcFE verisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %4,3\u2019e s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor; \u00e7ekirdek e\u011filimi yans\u0131tan \u201ctrimmed mean\u201d yak\u0131ndan izlenecek. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 saatte May\u0131s istihdam raporu geliyor; bu, \u00f6nceki aydaki s\u00fcrpriz istihdam d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn 12:30 GMT\u2019de ABD birinci \u00e7eyrek GSYH \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tahmini ve May\u0131s PCE verileri de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Teknik olarak 0,7050 diren\u00e7, 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA ise 0,7100 civar\u0131nda bulunuyor; destek 0,7000. Bunun alt\u0131na sarkmada 0,6950 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 0,6900 g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. Stoch RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yak\u0131n seyrederken, 0,7100 alt\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm n\u00f6trden ay\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fck.<\/p>\n
Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, kendi hik\u00e2yesinden ziyade yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmelerle y\u00f6n buldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u015eahin Fed\u2019in destekledi\u011fi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131, son d\u00f6nemde AUD\/USD paritesini 0,6600 seviyesine do\u011fru itiyor. Yurt i\u00e7i tablo olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 olsa da, Avustralya Dolar\u0131 \u015fu an Dolar endeksli i\u015flemlerde adeta \u201cyolcu\u201d konumunda.<\/p>\n
RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin duru\u015fu hen\u00fcz bitmi\u015f de\u011fil. Son \u00e7eyreklik T\u00dcFE verisinin enflasyonun %3,8 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve RBA\u2019n\u0131n %2-3 hedef aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirgin \u00fczerinde seyretti\u011fini g\u00f6stermesi, kurulun faiz indirimi se\u00e7ene\u011fini de\u011ferlendirmesi i\u00e7in s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 alan b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu kal\u0131c\u0131 enflasyonun; merkez bankalar\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda faizi indiren di\u011fer para birimlerine k\u0131yasla, Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na temel tarafta daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir zemin sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, bu yurt i\u00e7i g\u00fc\u00e7 kurda y\u00fckseli\u015fe d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedi. Avustralya Dolar\u0131 k\u00fcresel risk alg\u0131s\u0131na son derece duyarl\u0131; g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar\u0131 ve \u00c7in ekonomisine ili\u015fkin s\u00fcregelen endi\u015feler risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131l\u0131yor. \u00c7in\u2019den gelen zay\u0131f talep, demir cevheri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ton ba\u015f\u0131na 100 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde tutunmas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rarak kurda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde odak noktam\u0131z, gelecek haftaki ayl\u0131k Avustralya T\u00dcFE verisi olacak. Beklentiden s\u0131cak gelecek bir veri, RBA\u2019n\u0131n \u015fahin pozisyonunu peki\u015ftirerek Avustralya Dolar\u0131\u2019na (k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli de olsa) daha ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir ralli i\u00e7in gerek\u00e7e yaratabilir. T\u00fcrev yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131, 0,6700 diren\u00e7 b\u00f6lgesine olas\u0131 bir s\u0131\u00e7ramaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in k\u0131sa vadeli al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak as\u0131l belirleyici, haftan\u0131n ilerleyen b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) fiyat endeksi olacak. Tarihsel olarak g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Avustralya verisi ile g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD enflasyon verisinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi\u011fi senaryolarda, \u00e7o\u011fu zaman kazanan ABD Dolar\u0131 oluyor. Bu nedenle, ABD PCE verisinin beklentiden s\u0131cak gelmesi halinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Parite 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n yak\u0131n\u0131ndaki 0,6700 seviyesinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece e\u011filimimiz n\u00f6trden ay\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fck. Korunma (hedge) arayan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in, kritik 0,6600 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131na sahip sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131, 0,6550\u2019ye do\u011fru sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 koruma sa\u011flayabilir. Bu strateji, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete kat\u0131l\u0131m imk\u00e2n\u0131 sunarken ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 riskini s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Fed\u2019in \u015fahinli\u011fi ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar, AUD\/USD\u2019yi 0,7000 deste\u011fine iterek Aussie\u2019yi bask\u0131lad\u0131. RBA faizi %4,35\u2019te tutsa da tepki zay\u0131f. G\u00f6zler Avustralya T\u00dcFE\/istihdam ve ABD PCE\u2019de.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47747,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49753\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47747"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}