Alt\u0131n, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ate\u015fkes imzalanmadan d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay\u0131na girerken dahi haftay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k %1,5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. B\u00f6ylece metal, alt\u0131 haftad\u0131r s\u00fcren daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ya da yatay kapan\u0131\u015f serisini uzatt\u0131. Fiyatlar 4.000 dolar seviyesine do\u011fru s\u00fcr\u00fckleniyor; \u015fubat ay\u0131nda 5.600 dolar civar\u0131ndaki rekorun olduk\u00e7a uza\u011f\u0131nda. Piyasa alt\u0131n\u0131 jeopolitik bir korunma arac\u0131 olmaktan ziyade ABD reel getirilerinin bir t\u00fcrevi gibi fiyatl\u0131yor. Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) haziranda politikay\u0131 %3,75\u2019te sabit tuttu; ancak daha \u201c\u015fahin\u201d dot plot, daha \u00f6nce beklenen indirimler yerine 2026\u2019da ek art\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru beklentileri \u00e7ekti. Bu arada ABD Dolar Endeksi 13 ay\u0131n zirvesinde.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon dinamikleri de bu \u201cfaiz odakl\u0131\u201d hik\u00e2yeyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirdi. Man\u015fet T\u00dcFE, may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Piyasalar \u015fimdi gelecek per\u015fembe 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak ABD verilerine odaklan\u0131yor: 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tahmini ve may\u0131s PCE. \u00c7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,3 (\u00f6nceki %0,2) gelmesi bekleniyor; bu seviyede ya da \u00fczerinde bir ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme, reel getiriler \u00fczerindeki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrerek 4.000 dolar\u0131n test edilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Destek ayr\u0131ca 4.120 dolarda izleniyor. Diren\u00e7 4.200 dolar civar\u0131nda, ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 4.365 dolar ve 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 4.500 dolar seviyeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor; Stoch RSI yeniden a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m b\u00f6lgesine yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Alt\u0131n fiyat\u0131n\u0131n jeopolitik korkuyla neredeyse hi\u00e7bir ilgisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, belirleyici unsurun Fed oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Son may\u0131s PCE enflasyon raporu da bunu teyit etti; y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda inat\u00e7\u0131 \u015fekilde %2,9 seviyesinde geldi. Bu tablo, piyasada Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131 inanc\u0131n\u0131 peki\u015ftirerek metaldeki \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n
Bizim i\u00e7in kritik g\u00f6sterge ABD reel getirileri ve bunlar %2,1\u2019in \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam duruyor. Bu durum, getiri \u00fcretmeyen bir varl\u0131k olan alt\u0131n\u0131 elde tutman\u0131n f\u0131rsat maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131yor. 105\u2019in \u00fczerinde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD Dolar Endeksi de metal \u00fczerinde ek bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa Fed\u2019in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma sinyalini tamamen fiyatlam\u0131\u015f durumda; vadeli i\u015flemler, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131na kadar bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na %65\u2019in \u00fczerinde olas\u0131l\u0131k bi\u00e7iyor. Bu da alt\u0131ndaki k\u0131sa vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015flerin sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131lanma ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li patikan\u0131n net bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in t\u00fcrev \u00fcr\u00fcnler \u00fczerinden \u201cay\u0131\u201d pozisyonunun uygun oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. 4.000 dolar e\u015fi\u011finde veya alt\u0131nda kullan\u0131m fiyatl\u0131 sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lmaya pozisyon almak i\u00e7in net bir yol sunuyor. 4.365 dolar civar\u0131ndaki ana direncin \u00fczerinde call credit spread satmak da, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimini korurken prim toplamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan etkili bir strateji olabilir.<\/p>\n
Spek\u00fclat\u00f6r pozisyonlanmas\u0131n\u0131 da yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; son CFTC verileri, hedge fonlar\u0131n kayda de\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde net uzun pozisyonda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 4.000 dolar kritik deste\u011finin alt\u0131na net bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, bu pozisyonlardan zorunlu sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyebilir. Bu \u201clong squeeze\u201d, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc 3.000\u2019li dolarlar\u0131n \u00fcst band\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert uyar\u0131: Jeopolitik de\u011fil Fed fiyatl\u0131yor. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar ve %2,1+ reel getirilerle fiyat 4.000 dolara \u00e7ekiliyor. PCE\/GSYH verileri kritik; k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m long squeeze ile 3.000\u2019lere h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49752"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49752\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47833"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}