ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY), haftan\u0131n son b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde 13 ay\u0131n yeni zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131ktan sonra geri \u00e7ekildi; hareket, g\u00fcvenli limana ka\u00e7\u0131\u015ftan ziyade daha s\u0131k\u0131 Federal Rezerv politikas\u0131 beklentileriyle \u015fekillendi. Federal A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi\u2019nin (FOMC) haziranda daha \u015fahin bir tona ge\u00e7mesinin ard\u0131ndan dolar\u0131n deste\u011fi, di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 beklemeye ge\u00e7erken politika faizi farklar\u0131na odakland\u0131. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 (BoE) ve \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) politikay\u0131 sabit tutarken, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) 2023\u2019ten bu yana ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Fed cephesinde y\u00f6nlendirme de\u011fi\u015fti; komite faizi %3,75\u2019te tutarken dot plot daha yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131 ve medyan tahmin bu y\u0131l ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya e\u011filime i\u015faret etti. Gelecek hafta odak, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 12:30 GMT\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak verilere \u00e7evriliyor: 1\u00c7 GSYH\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc tahmini ile may\u0131s Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verisi birlikte gelecek; GSYH\u2019nin ilk a\u00e7\u0131klanan %2,0\u2019ye k\u0131yasla %1,6 seviyesinde gelmesi beklenirken, \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k %0,2\u2019den %0,3\u2019e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6ne \u00e7\u0131kan teknik seviyeler 101,00 ve 102,00 diren\u00e7leri; 100,50 ve 100,00 destekleri ve 99,00 civar\u0131ndaki 50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA b\u00f6lgesi olarak belirtiliyor; may\u0131s man\u015fet T\u00dcFE y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda %4\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Dolar\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fc basit bir ger\u00e7e\u011fe dayan\u0131yor: Federal Rezerv faiz art\u0131rmaya istekliyken di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 de\u011fil. Bunu \u00f6zellikle 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k ABD Hazine tahvilleri ile Alman bundlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n art\u0131k 150 baz puan\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla, net bir getiri fark\u0131 i\u015flemi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu makas, getiri arayan sermaye i\u00e7in dolar\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Yak\u0131n vadeli oda\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, gelecek per\u015fembe a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) verisi. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u0130statistikleri B\u00fcrosu (BLS) may\u0131s y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00dcFE\u2019yi inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %4,1 olarak raporlad\u0131ktan sonra, Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi PCE g\u00f6stergesindeki bir h\u0131zlanma ilerideki bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse kesinle\u015ftirir. Bu tek veri, dolar lehine y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc teyit edecek ya da rallinin kendi kendini fazlaca \u00f6nden fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n
ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019nde, 101,50\u2013102,00 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hedefleyen kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131yla al\u0131m opsiyonu (call) ya da al\u0131m spread\u2019leri gibi y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc t\u00fcrev stratejilere bak\u0131yoruz. Bu enstr\u00fcmanlar, PCE sonras\u0131 olas\u0131 bir yukar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lmadan faydalan\u0131rken enflasyon verisi zay\u0131f gelirse riskimizi tan\u0131ml\u0131 tutman\u0131n bir yolunu sunuyor. Y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlanmay\u0131 yeniden de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in 100,00 seviyesini kritik referans noktas\u0131 olarak kullanaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, enerji \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme endi\u015felerine ra\u011fmen Fed\u2019i s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1970\u2019lerin sonu gibi ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclere benziyor. CME FedWatch Tool verileri, eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in ima edilen olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir ay \u00f6nceki %20\u2019den %60\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerine s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Piyasan\u0131n, Fed\u2019in enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 tam fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
DXY 13 ay zirvesinden geri \u00e7ekilse de y\u00f6n\u00fc Fed\u2019in \u015fahinle\u015fen dot plot\u2019u ve getiri farklar\u0131 belirliyor. G\u00f6zler 1\u00c7 GSYH ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE\u2019de; 101-102 diren\u00e7, 100 kritik destek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47688"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}