Alt\u0131n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc %1,69 gerileyerek 4.147 dolara indi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u201cdaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d duru\u015funun dolar\u0131 ve Hazine tahvili getirilerini yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mas\u0131yla \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kayb\u0131na haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. ABD Dolar Endeksi (DXY) 101,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karak 13 ay\u0131n zirvesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Para piyasalar\u0131 16 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in 18 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 fiyatlad\u0131; bu da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %72 oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Fed toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k Hazine tahvili faizi 13 baz puan y\u00fckselerek k\u00fcl\u00e7eyi 4.121 dolarla alt\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine \u00e7ekti; H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 petrol arz\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri azaltsa da bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelleyemedi. Di\u011fer tarafta ECB 11 Haziran\u2019da faizleri 25 baz puan art\u0131rd\u0131, BoJ ise Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ayn\u0131 y\u00f6nde ad\u0131m att\u0131; Fed ayr\u0131ca FOMC \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2026\u2019da en az bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc sinyalledi.<\/p>\n
Teknik olarak alt\u0131n, 4.466 dolardaki 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kalmaya devam ediyor; grafikler 4.100 dolar\u0131, ard\u0131ndan da 11 Haziran\u2019da g\u00f6r\u00fclen 4.023 dolarl\u0131k y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyeyi i\u015faret ediyor. Daha sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme 4.000 dolar\u0131 ve 28 Ekim 2025\u2019teki 3.886 dolarl\u0131k sal\u0131n\u0131m dibini g\u00fcndeme getirebilir. Yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde ise olas\u0131 bir toparlanmada, yeniden 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA ve 4.500 dolar seviyeleri hedeflenmeden \u00f6nce 4.382 dolardaki 17 Haziran d\u00f6ng\u00fc zirvesinin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekecek. Goldman Sachs Aral\u0131k tahminini ons ba\u015f\u0131na 4.900 dolara indirerek \u00f6nceki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne g\u00f6re 500 dolar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti; gelecek hafta oda\u011fa 2026 1. \u00e7eyrek GSYH ve \u00c7ekirdek PCE Fiyat Endeksi yerle\u015fiyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton alt\u0131n ekledi.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in faizleri daha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek tutma taahh\u00fcd\u00fc dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, alt\u0131ndaki mevcut zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcregelen bir trend oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ABD dolar\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen Hazine tahvili getirileri, getiri sa\u011flamayan metal i\u00e7in belirgin bir kar\u015f\u0131 r\u00fczg\u00e2r yarat\u0131yor. Bu nedenle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131nda ilave d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere g\u00f6re pozisyon al\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Piyasa beklentileri bu \u015fahin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f etraf\u0131nda netle\u015fiyor. Bu sabah a\u00e7\u0131klanan en son CME FedWatch Tool verileri, Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n %75\u2019e yak\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. ABD 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizi %4,95\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor; bu seviye 2025 sonundan bu yana g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015fti ve alt\u0131n gibi s\u0131f\u0131r getirili bir varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde tutmay\u0131 daha az cazip hale getiriyor. Faizlerden kaynaklanan bu kal\u0131c\u0131 bask\u0131, ay\u0131 senaryomuzun temel unsuru.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc harekete s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 riskle kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in alt\u0131n vadeli kontratlar\u0131 veya ilgili ETF\u2019ler \u00fczerinde sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Fiyatlar\u0131n 4.023 dolar civar\u0131ndaki y\u0131l i\u00e7i dip seviyeyi test edebilece\u011fi beklentisiyle, kritik 4.100 dolar seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki kullan\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 hedefliyoruz. Bu seviyenin alt\u0131na bir k\u0131r\u0131lma, \u00e7ok daha derin bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
\u0130zlenmesi gereken ana kataliz\u00f6r, Fed\u2019in tercih etti\u011fi enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olan gelecek haftaki \u00c7ekirdek Ki\u015fisel T\u00fcketim Harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) raporu olacak. Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin son \u00c7ekirdek PCE verisi y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bazda %3,1 gelerek Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin inatla \u00fczerinde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bir di\u011fer g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc veri, alt\u0131ndaki geri \u00e7ekilmeyi muhtemelen h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131r ve ay\u0131 pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 teyit eder.<\/p>\n
Bu ortam, Fed\u2019in agresif faiz art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022-2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc and\u0131r\u0131yor; alt\u0131n, o d\u00f6nemde ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta zorlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Metal kal\u0131c\u0131 bir dip ancak piyasa s\u00f6z konusu faiz d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn zirvesini tamamen fiyatlad\u0131ktan sonra bulabilmi\u015fti. \u015eimdi de benzer bir modelin tekrar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilir; bu da uzun vadeli bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmadan \u00f6nce a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn bir s\u00fcre daha bask\u0131n kalabilece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda sert sat\u0131\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor: Fed\u2019in \u201cuzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d mesaj\u0131 dolar\u0131 13 ay\u0131n zirvesine, tahvil faizlerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Teknikte 4.100\/4.023 kritik; Goldman hedefi 4.900\u2019a indirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47830,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49747","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49747"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49747\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49747"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49747"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49747"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}