\u0130svi\u00e7re frang\u0131 haftay\u0131 en zay\u0131f maj\u00f6r para birimi olarak kapatt\u0131; USD\/CHF, mart ba\u015f\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma d\u00f6neminde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman\u201d deste\u011fi sunmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, y\u0131l\u0131n yeni zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131. Frank, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (SNB) m\u00fcdahale uyar\u0131lar\u0131 ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman talebi ile getirilerdeki \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sayesinde g\u00fc\u00e7 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan geri \u00e7ekilmeden \u00f6nce, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda on y\u0131l\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n s\u00fcrenin en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviyesini k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Mart sonuna gelindi\u011finde ise Frank, \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyonun s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seyretmesinin s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 ve SNB\u2019nin de\u011ferlenmeyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in frank satmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesiyle dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden birka\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
SNB daha sonra politika faizini %0\u2019da b\u0131rakt\u0131 ve k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon tahminini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti; frank\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesine direnme s\u00f6ylemini de \u201cgerekirse\u201d ifadesini ekleyerek yumu\u015fatt\u0131. Piyasalar, mart ay\u0131nda 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k frank sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin haberi de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde geride b\u0131rakarak, volatilite azal\u0131rken frank\u0131n \u201cfonlama aya\u011f\u0131\u201d rol\u00fcne odakland\u0131; buna ra\u011fmen \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015flamas\u0131 beklenen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da \u0130srail\u2013Hizbullah \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden alevlenmesinin ard\u0131ndan iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ertelendi. Teknik tarafta USD\/CHF, 0,7950 civar\u0131ndaki 200 EMA\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; 0,8000 seviyesini ve 50 EMA\u2019y\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131; Stoch RSI 80\u2019in \u00fczerinde kal\u0131rken diren\u00e7 0,8100, ard\u0131ndan 0,8150\u2019de; destek ise 0,8000, 0,7950 ve yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,7900\u2019de bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Burada temel itici g\u00fcc\u00fcn, \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n daha zay\u0131f bir franka sessiz bir memnuniyetle yakla\u015fmas\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de enflasyon son olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda yaln\u0131zca %0,4 seviyesinde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131; bu da SNB\u2019nin %0 politika faizinden vazge\u00e7mesi i\u00e7in bir neden b\u0131rakm\u0131yor. Bu tablo, %2,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde sa\u011flam duran ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz oran\u0131yla keskin bir tezat olu\u015fturuyor ve dolar lehine belirgin bir getiri avantaj\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Bu faiz fark\u0131, volatilite d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck\u00e7e cazibesi artan carry trade i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in frang\u0131 ideal bir fonlama para birimi haline getiriyor. Korku g\u00f6stergesi olarak izlenen VIX endeksinin bu \u00e7eyrekte ilk kez 15\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fck; bu seviye tarihsel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck getirili para birimlerinden bor\u00e7lan\u0131p daha y\u00fcksek getirili varl\u0131klara yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 te\u015fvik ediyor. Bu kurgu, 2008 \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde Japon yeninin benzer bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131 klasik bir d\u00fczene\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
A\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa vadeli bir d\u00fczeltmeye yol a\u00e7abilmesi nedeniyle, bunu de\u011ferlendirmenin en uygun yolunun opsiyon piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerinden oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 0,8100 civar\u0131nda olan USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131, vade olarak Temmuz sonu ya da A\u011fustos 2026\u2019y\u0131 hedefleyerek sat\u0131n almay\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Bu strateji, y\u00fckseli\u015fin devam etmesi halinde getiri potansiyeli sunarken, azami riskimizi \u00f6denen primle net \u015fekilde s\u0131n\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe y\u00f6nelik ana risk, bar\u0131\u015f uzla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n tamamen \u00e7\u00f6kmesi; L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar bunu ger\u00e7ek bir olas\u0131l\u0131k haline getiriyor. G\u00fcvenli liman talebini yeniden canland\u0131rabilecek bir t\u0131rmanma i\u015fareti i\u00e7in haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izleyece\u011fiz. \u0130htiyatl\u0131 bir hedge olarak, kritik 0,7950 destek seviyesinin alt\u0131ndaki bir kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131ndan, az say\u0131da \u201cout-of-the-money\u201d USD\/CHF sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu ta\u015f\u0131mak uygun olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Frank haftan\u0131n en zay\u0131f maj\u00f6r\u00fc: USD\/CHF y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine t\u0131rmand\u0131. SNB\u2019nin zay\u0131f frank tolerans\u0131, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyon ve ABD faiz avantaj\u0131 carry trade\u2019i besliyor; 0,8100\/0,8150 diren\u00e7te opsiyonla y\u00fckseli\u015f hedefleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49744","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49744","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49744"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49744\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49744"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49744"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49744"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}