{"id":49743,"date":"2026-06-19T23:41:58","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T23:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr\/uncategorized\/usd-chf-fed-snb-politika-ayrismasinin-yukselis-egilimini-desteklemesiyle-kasim-2025in-en-yuksek-seviyesine-tirmandi\/"},"modified":"2026-06-19T23:41:58","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T23:41:58","slug":"usd-chf-fed-snb-politika-ayrismasinin-yukselis-egilimini-desteklemesiyle-kasim-2025in-en-yuksek-seviyesine-tirmandi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/live-updates\/usd-chf-fed-snb-politika-ayrismasinin-yukselis-egilimini-desteklemesiyle-kasim-2025in-en-yuksek-seviyesine-tirmandi\/","title":{"rendered":"USD\/CHF, Fed-SNB politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimini desteklemesiyle Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019in en y\u00fcksek seviyesine t\u0131rmand\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>USD\/CHF, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n gerilemesine ra\u011fmen Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; bunun arkas\u0131nda Federal Rezerv (Fed) ile \u0130svi\u00e7re Merkez Bankas\u0131 (SNB) aras\u0131ndaki para politikas\u0131 beklentilerinin h\u00e2l\u00e2 ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yer ald\u0131. Parite 0,8080 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rerek Kas\u0131m 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesini test etti. ABD Dolar Endeksi, daha \u00f6nce May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seviye olan 101,13\u2019e dokunduktan sonra 100,80 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda her iki merkez bankas\u0131 da faizleri sabit tutarken, Fed enflasyonu %2 hedefine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcrmeye odaklanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; dot plot ise FOMC \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130svi\u00e7re\u2019de ise zay\u0131f enflasyon, istikrarl\u0131 bir politika duru\u015funu destekledi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm destekleyici kalmaya devam etti: USD\/CHF 0,7849 ve 0,7907\u2019de bulunan 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fczerinde kald\u0131. RSI 68,6 seviyesindeyken ADX 27 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Diren\u00e7 0,8100 b\u00f6lgesinde bulunurken, g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi oda\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nce 0,8300\u2019e, ard\u0131ndan 0,8500\u2019ye \u00e7evirebilir. Destek taraf\u0131nda 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019ya yak\u0131n 0,7907 \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, bir sonraki katman 0,7849\u2019daki 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA olarak belirlendi. Raporda, teknik analizin bir yapay zek\u00e2 arac\u0131n\u0131n yard\u0131m\u0131yla \u00fcretildi\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<h3>Para Politikas\u0131 Ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 Y\u00fckseli\u015f G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc Destekliyor<\/h3>\n<p>Para politikalar\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fmaya dayanarak, ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u0130svi\u00e7re Frang\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Fed, enflasyonu kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak i\u00e7in olas\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, SNB mevcut duru\u015fundan memnun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu temel farkl\u0131l\u0131k, USD\/CHF paritesi i\u00e7in y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6nl\u00fc beklentimizin ana itici g\u00fcc\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, bu ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan son enflasyon verileriyle de g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. ABD T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) May\u0131s 2026\u2019da %3,6 ile beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde gelerek Fed \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 canl\u0131 tuttu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130svi\u00e7re enflasyonu yaln\u0131zca %1,4 ile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrini koruyor; bu da SNB\u2019ye rotas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in bir neden sunmuyor.<\/p>\n<h3>\u0130\u015flem Stratejileri ve Risk Unsurlar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalar i\u00e7in, beklenen yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketten yararlanmak amac\u0131yla USD\/CHF al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131na odaklan\u0131yoruz. 0,8100\u2019deki ilk diren\u00e7 k\u0131sa vadede net bir hedef; bu seviyenin a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 0,8300\u2019e do\u011fru alan a\u00e7abilir. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos 2026 vadeli call opsiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 en uygun se\u00e7enekler olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Alternatif bir strateji olarak, prim geliri elde etmek amac\u0131yla paran\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda (out-of-the-money) sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilebilir. 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama civar\u0131ndaki 0,7900 b\u00f6lgesinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc teknik destek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz; bu da kullan\u0131m fiyat\u0131 (strike) i\u00e7in uygun bir seviye olu\u015fturuyor. Bu i\u015flem, paritenin bu yerle\u015fik taban\u0131n alt\u0131na belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergilememesi ko\u015fuluyla kazan\u00e7 sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi\u2019nin (RSI) y\u00fcksek seviyelerde olmas\u0131, k\u0131sa vadeli bir geri \u00e7ekilmeyi tetikleyebilir. Tarihsel olarak benzer kurulumlar, bir sonraki y\u00fckseli\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde \u00e7o\u011fu zaman yatay-s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir seyre i\u015faret etti; 2024 sonundaki diplerden ba\u015flayan kal\u0131c\u0131 t\u0131rman\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere. Bu nedenle 0,7900 destek b\u00f6lgesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilmeler, potansiyel bir al\u0131m f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dolarda dalgalanmaya ra\u011fmen USD\/CHF ralliye devam: Fed\u2019in \u015fahin sinyali, SNB\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonla sakin duru\u015fu pariteyi 0,8080\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. 0,8100 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 0,8300-0,8500 g\u00fcndemde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47700,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47700"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}