NZD\/USD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 0,5740 civar\u0131nda seyretti ve seans i\u00e7inde %0,28 geriledi. ABD Dolar\u0131, ABD para politikas\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisiyle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc duru\u015funu korurken, parite \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc g\u00fcnl\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor ve Nisan\u2019dan bu yana en zay\u0131f seviyelerine yak\u0131n kal\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n
Reuters, ABD ve Katarl\u0131 m\u00fczakerecilerin devrede oldu\u011fu ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n deste\u011finin bulundu\u011fu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u0130srail ile Hizbullah\u2019\u0131n Cuma \u00f6\u011fleden sonra y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girecek bir ate\u015fkes \u00fczerinde anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdikten sonra risk i\u015ftah\u0131 k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine toparland\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n piyasan\u0131n \u201cGreenback\u201de y\u00f6nelimi s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in kur tepkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131; bu e\u011filimin temelinde Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu yer ald\u0131. Bu haftaki projeksiyonlar, y\u0131l sonu Federal Fonlama Oran\u0131\u2019n\u0131 Mart\u2019taki %3,4\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %3,8 seviyesinde \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc ve ilave bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndemde tuttu. Ayr\u0131 olarak CNN, Ba\u015fkan Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 JD Vance\u2019in \u0130ran\u2019la \u0130svi\u00e7re g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerini iptal etti\u011fini belirtirken, \u0130ran ise sava\u015f\u0131 bitirmeye y\u00f6nelik ABD ile anla\u015fman\u0131n dijital olarak imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yeni Zelanda dolar\u0131 (Kiwi), RBNZ\u2019nin y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in politika faizini (OCR) yakla\u015f\u0131k %2,85\u2019te g\u00f6rmesine ra\u011fmen yaln\u0131zca s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 destek buldu.<\/p>\n
Fed\u2019in agresif duru\u015fu dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda bask\u0131n teman\u0131n ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7lenme olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeyiz. Y\u0131l sonu i\u00e7in %3,8 Federal Fonlama Oran\u0131 tahmini, dolar\u0131n Kiwi dahil \u00e7o\u011fu para birimine kar\u015f\u0131 belirgin bir getiri avantaj\u0131 elde etmesine neden oluyor. Bu politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131, NZD\/USD paritesi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmaya devam etmesi beklenen ana unsur.<\/p>\n
NZD\/USD\u2019de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesinden ya da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131ndan fayda sa\u011flayan t\u00fcrev stratejilerini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeli sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonlar\u0131 almak, \u00f6zellikle May\u0131s ay\u0131 ABD enflasyon verisinin inat\u00e7\u0131 bi\u00e7imde %3,5 seviyesinde gelerek Fed\u2019in bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na daha gidebilece\u011fi tezini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi nedeniyle, ihtiyatl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan Nisan dip seviyesi olan 0,5720\u2019yi kritik e\u015fik olarak yak\u0131ndan izliyoruz; bu seviyenin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ilave sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Yeni Zelanda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (RBNZ) kendi \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve nakit faizini %2,85\u2019e hedeflemesi destekleyici bir fakt\u00f6r olsa da, bunun NZD\u2019deki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tersine \u00e7evirmekten ziyade muhtemelen sadece yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yeni Zelanda enflasyonu y\u00fcksek seyrini korusa da erken d\u00f6nemde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015fma i\u015faretleri veriyor; bu da RBNZ\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sonuna Fed\u2019den daha yak\u0131n oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor. Bu dinamik, parite i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc senaryoyu (bearish) nihayetinde g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor.<\/p>\n
Ate\u015fkes haberi risk alg\u0131s\u0131na ge\u00e7ici bir destek sa\u011flasa da, para politikas\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 temel dinamikleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor. Jeopolitik risk priminin faiz g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne k\u0131yasla ikincil kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmesiyle, NZD\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek olas\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lenmeleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Piyasa oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki bu k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli sakinle\u015fme, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in daha uygun maliyetli bir giri\u015f noktas\u0131 da sunabilir.<\/p>\n
Bu piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131, benzer \u015fekilde agresif bir Fed s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn NZD\/USD\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 2022 i\u015flem y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Emtia Vadeli \u0130\u015flemler Komisyonu\u2019nun (CFTC) son verileri, b\u00fcy\u00fck spek\u00fclat\u00f6rlerin Kiwi\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda kayda de\u011fer net k\u0131sa (net-short) pozisyonlar ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durum i\u015flemin kalabal\u0131kla\u015fmas\u0131na i\u015faret etse de, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck diren\u00e7li y\u00f6n\u00fcn h\u00e2l\u00e2 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011funu teyit ediyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dolar r\u00fczg\u00e2r\u0131 dinmiyor: NZD\/USD 0,5740\u2019ta \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ko\u015fuyor. Fed\u2019in daha uzun s\u00fcre s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fu ve %3,8 faiz projeksiyonu bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor; 0,5720 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa sat\u0131\u015flar h\u0131zlanabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":49795,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49741"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}