Fed\u2019in \u015eahin Duru\u015fu ve S\u00fcregelen Jeopolitik Gerilimler Aras\u0131nda Sterlinin Toparlanmas\u0131<\/p>\n
Sterlin, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonunun ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131 desteklemesiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 1,3163 ile \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine geriledikten sonra toparland\u0131. GBP\/USD, ABD\u2019de tatil nedeniyle s\u0131\u011f i\u015flemlerde %0,18 y\u00fckselerek 1,3226\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131; ancak parite haftay\u0131 %1,25 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle kapatma yolunda kald\u0131. Dolar\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi, FOMC \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l sonuna kadar bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemesiyle desteklendi; bu durum ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni 101,13\u2019e ta\u015f\u0131rken 16 May\u0131s 2025 zirvesi olan 101,26\u2019y\u0131 eri\u015filebilir k\u0131ld\u0131. Endeks g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yatay seyretti ancak 101,00 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde tutundu.<\/p>\n
ABD-\u0130ran anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan jeopolitik tansiyon yeniden y\u00fckseldi; Hizbullah ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki anla\u015fmay\u0131 s\u0131narken, daha sonra gelen ate\u015fkes a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 piyasalar\u0131 dengeledi. \u0130ngiltere\u2019de, Bank of England\u2019\u0131n 7-2 oyla faizi %3,75\u2019te sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde enflasyon verileri \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 geldi; Pill ve Greene art\u0131\u015ftan yana oy kulland\u0131. Hanehalk\u0131 enflasyon beklentilerinin 2009\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyede oldu\u011fu bildirildi. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar beklentileri a\u015farken b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerden daha geni\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Gelecek hafta \u0130ngiltere Flash PMI\u2019lar\u0131 ve BoE konu\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ABD\u2019de Fed yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, Flash PMI\u2019lar, konut ve istihdam verileri, GSYH ve \u00e7ekirdek PCE izlenecek. Teknik tarafta GBP\/USD 1,3227 seviyesinde; 1,3463 civar\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenen 50, 100 ve 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck SMA\u2019lar\u0131n alt\u0131nda ve 1,3546 civar\u0131nda k\u0131r\u0131lan trend \u00e7izgisinin alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. RSI 34 ile a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131ma yakla\u015f\u0131rken, destek 1,3159 civar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Sterlinin 1,3220 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, \u00e7eyrek i\u00e7in yeni bir dip seviyeyi test ettikten sonra s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu zay\u0131fl\u0131k, Fed\u2019in faizleri erken indirme konusunda temkinli kalmas\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ABD dolar\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalara girerken sterlindeki temel a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendin korundu\u011fu kanaatindeyiz.<\/p>\n
Ana belirleyici, Fed ile BoE aras\u0131ndaki politika fark\u0131. Son ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE verisi enflasyonun %2,9 ile yap\u0131\u015fkan kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi; bu da Fed\u2019i faiz indiriminde isteksiz k\u0131l\u0131yor. BoE\u2019nin son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faizi sabit tutma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde 6-3\u2019l\u00fck oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ise gev\u015femeye ba\u015flama arzusunun g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu temel ayr\u0131\u015fma, GBP\/USD \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasa duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, Orta Do\u011fu kaynakl\u0131 yeniden canlanan jeopolitik riskle de zay\u0131fl\u0131yor. Hizbullah ile \u0130srail aras\u0131ndaki son \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n g\u00fcvenli liman aray\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ABD Dolar Endeksi\u2019ni (DXY) bu hafta 2026\u2019n\u0131n yeni zirvesi olan 106,50\u2019ye ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Olas\u0131 bir t\u0131rmanma, sterlin \u00fczerindeki a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131rabilir.<\/p>\n
Yurt i\u00e7inde, \u0130ngiltere karma ancak nihayetinde endi\u015fe verici bir tablo sunuyor. Ge\u00e7en ay perakende sat\u0131\u015flar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olsa da, son veriler May\u0131s ay\u0131nda kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n 18 milyar sterline s\u0131\u00e7rad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve tahminleri belirgin \u015fekilde a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin mali duru\u015funa y\u00f6nelik yeni soru i\u015faretleri do\u011furuyor ve sterlin etraf\u0131ndaki negatif alg\u0131y\u0131 besliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu belirsizlik arka plan\u0131nda, opsiyon primlerini cazip buluyoruz. GBP\/USD i\u00e7in 1 ayl\u0131k ima edilen volatilite son bir haftada %7,5\u2019ten %9,0\u2019a y\u00fckseldi ve daha da artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Mevcut sakin seyrin s\u00fcrmesinin zor oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyle, anlaml\u0131 bir fiyat sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na pozisyon almak i\u00e7in straddle al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak, gelecek haftan\u0131n takvimi kritik: Hem \u0130ngiltere hem ABD\u2019den flash PMI verileri a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. T\u00fcm dikkatler, dolar i\u00e7in yaz boyunca y\u00f6n belirleyebilecek ABD \u00e7ekirdek PCE enflasyon raporunda olacak. Merkez bankas\u0131 yetkililerinin konu\u015fmalar\u0131 da, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce setlerindeki olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimleri g\u00f6rmek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan izlenecek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sterlin, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131yla g\u00fc\u00e7lenen dolar ve Orta Do\u011fu gerilimi aras\u0131nda dipten s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 toparland\u0131; BoE\u2019nin gev\u015feme sinyali bask\u0131 kuruyor. G\u00f6zler Flash PMI\u2019lar, \u00e7ekirdek PCE ve teknik destek 1,3160\u2019ta.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47807,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47807"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}