Ham petrol g\u00f6stergeleri, \u015eubat sonundaki H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndaki aksakl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 risk priminin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc geri verdi; ge\u00e7ici ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi ve ilk tanker ge\u00e7i\u015fleri WTI\u2019\u0131 70\u2019lerin ortas\u0131na, Brent\u2019i ise 80\u2019in hemen alt\u0131na itti. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fcnden gelecek haftan\u0131n ortas\u0131na sarkt\u0131, ancak vadeli i\u015flemler tedarik zincirlerinin \u015fimdiden normalle\u015fti\u011fi varsay\u0131m\u0131yla i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fiziki piyasada s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ak\u0131mda yo\u011funla\u015f\u0131yor: ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnler ve petrokimya hammaddeleri k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalmaya devam ediyor. Kal\u0131c\u0131 kapan\u0131\u015flar\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varilden fazla kapasiteyi devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla rafinaj kapasitesi ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131r haline geldi; ayr\u0131ca daha hafif ABD kaya (shale) t\u00fcrleri nispeten daha az motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 veriyor.<\/p>\n
Yukar\u0131 ak\u0131m g\u00f6stergeleri de k\u0131tl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. ABD\u2019nin ana teslimat merkezindeki ticari stoklar sekiz haftad\u0131r aral\u0131ks\u0131z gerileyerek yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon varile indi ve operasyonel taban seviyelerine yakla\u015ft\u0131; rekor ihracat etkisiyle ABD genel stoklar\u0131 1980\u2019lerin ortas\u0131 d\u00fczeylerine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Bo\u011faz\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 kademeli ilerliyor; may\u0131n temizli\u011fi aylar, tankerlerin yeniden konumlanmas\u0131 haftalar al\u0131rken, kapat\u0131lan sahalar\u0131n yeniden devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 daha da yava\u015f. Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar, ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi seviyelere ancak gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Resmi tahminler art\u0131k k\u00fcresel t\u00fcketimin bu y\u0131l daralaca\u011f\u0131na ve Brent\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte 70\u2019lerin alt\u0131na do\u011fru sarkaca\u011f\u0131na, 2027\u2019de ise ilave a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n riskine i\u015faret ediyor. Teknik seviyelerde WTI i\u00e7in 77,00 civar\u0131 diren\u00e7, ard\u0131ndan 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck EMA\u2019n\u0131n 78,00-78,50 ve 80,00 b\u00f6lgeleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken; destek 75,00 ve 74,00 civar\u0131nda. Brent\u2019te diren\u00e7 80,00 ve 200 EMA\u2019n\u0131n 82,50-83,00 band\u0131; destek 78,00-78,50 ve ard\u0131ndan 76,00. Stoch RSI a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m seviyesine yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n Ham petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n, ABD-\u0130ran ate\u015fkesi umuduyla fazla h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde sat\u0131\u015f yedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) 70 dolar\u0131n ortalar\u0131na inse de, fiziki piyasa ger\u00e7ekleri bu denli h\u0131zl\u0131 bir fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc desteklemiyor. Vadeli piyasalar, hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmemi\u015f bir toparlanmay\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Temel s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ak\u0131mda, motorin ve jet yak\u0131t\u0131 gibi rafine \u00fcr\u00fcnlere kaym\u0131\u015f durumda. K\u00fcresel rafinaj kapasitesi yetersizli\u011fi, ham petrol ucuzlasa bile bu temel yak\u0131tlar\u0131n arz\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Son veriler, rafinaj k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7en 3-2-1 crack spread\u2019in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 35 dolar civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek seyrini korudu\u011funu ve Haziran ay\u0131 i\u00e7in be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n belirgin \u015fekilde \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n ABD petrol stoklar\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Oklahoma\u2019daki Cushing ana teslimat merkezinde kritik derecede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde. Enerji Enformasyon \u0130daresi\u2019nin (EIA) ge\u00e7en haftaya ili\u015fkin raporu, ticari stoklarda bir kez daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret ederek Cushing stoklar\u0131n\u0131 20 milyon varilin biraz \u00fczerine indirdi. Bu seviye operasyonel tabana yak\u0131n ve yukar\u0131 ak\u0131mda olduk\u00e7a s\u0131k\u0131 bir piyasaya i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeniden a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u201canahtar \u00e7evirir gibi\u201d ele al\u0131n\u0131yor; oysa tarih bunun daha \u00e7ok yava\u015f \u00e7evrilen bir kadran gibi oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fteki kesintiler, su yollar\u0131n\u0131n temizlenmesinin ve \u00fcreticilerin rezervuarlara zarar vermeden kapat\u0131lan sahalar\u0131 g\u00fcvenle yeniden ba\u015flatmas\u0131n\u0131n aylar s\u00fcrebildi\u011fini ortaya koydu. Bu varillerin geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftan\u0131n de\u011fil, 2027\u2019nin hik\u00e2yesi olmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n Bu nedenle, son sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n abart\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve taktik bir f\u0131rsat sundu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G\u00f6reli G\u00fc\u00e7 Endeksi gibi teknik g\u00f6stergeler a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sat\u0131m ko\u015fullar\u0131na i\u015faret ederken, WTI 74,00-75,00 dolar band\u0131nda deste\u011fini korudu\u011fu s\u00fcrece bu zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda pozisyon almay\u0131 tercih ederiz. Fiyat\u0131n 200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama olan 78,00 dolar civar\u0131na do\u011fru toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n Bununla birlikte uzun vadeli y\u00fckseli\u015f taraf\u0131nda de\u011filiz; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc K\u00f6rfez varilleri piyasaya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde arz fazlas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131yor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel talep beklentileri yumu\u015farken, IEA art\u0131k 2027 ba\u015flar\u0131nda piyasada fazla olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Stratejik g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz, 80 dolar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerine uzanan y\u00fckseli\u015fleri sat\u0131\u015f f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak de\u011ferlendirmek ve gelecek y\u0131la do\u011fru daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlar i\u00e7in pozisyon almak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Piyasalar ate\u015fkesi fiyatlay\u0131p ham petrolde risk primini sildi: WTI 70\u2019ler, Brent 80 alt\u0131. Ancak fiziki s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k rafinajda; \u00fcr\u00fcn arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131, stoklar dipte. Teknikte 74\u201375 destek, 78\u201380 diren\u00e7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47662,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49738","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49738"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49738\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49738"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49738"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49738"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Piyasadaki Ayr\u0131\u015fma ve Rafine \u00dcr\u00fcn K\u0131s\u0131tlar\u0131<\/h3>\n
Bo\u011faz\u0131n Yeniden A\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131na \u0130li\u015fkin Ger\u00e7ekler ve Taktik Pozisyonlanma<\/h3>\n