Alt\u0131n (XAU\/USD), Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 4.121 dolarla bir haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini test etmesinin ard\u0131ndan 4.150 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Piyasalar, ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki 60 g\u00fcnl\u00fck Mutabakat Zapt\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (MoU) ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (Fed) \u015fahin mesajlar\u0131n\u0131 birlikte de\u011ferlendirirken fiyatlama y\u00f6n bulmakta zorland\u0131. ABD Dolar\u0131\u2019ndaki s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilme d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri bir miktar frenlese de, k\u00fcl\u00e7e alt\u0131n \u00fcst \u00fcste \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc haftal\u0131k kayba haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor ve t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n zirvesinin yakla\u015f\u0131k %25 alt\u0131nda bulunuyor. Faiz beklentileri sertle\u015fti: CME FedWatch Tool, Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 g\u00f6sterirken, Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda FOMC \u00fcyelerinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar en az bir art\u0131\u015fa i\u015faret etti. \u201cDaha uzun s\u00fcre y\u00fcksek faiz\u201d fiyatlamas\u0131, May\u0131s\u2019ta enflasyonun Fed\u2019in %2 hedefinin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda %4,2 seviyesinde seyretmesiyle g\u00fc\u00e7lenirken, itici unsur olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterildi; Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Kevin Warsh da %2 hedefini yeniden teyit etti.<\/p>\n
Fiziki talep de zay\u0131flad\u0131. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131n ithalat\u0131, ge\u00e7en ay ithalat vergilerinin %6\u2019dan %15\u2019e y\u00fckseltilmesinin ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k %70 geriledi. Jeopolitik cephe de risk alg\u0131s\u0131na y\u00f6n verdi: Beyaz Saray, JD Vance\u2019in \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleriyle ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 \u0130svi\u00e7re ziyaretini erteledi\u011fini duyururken, \u0130ran D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 MoU\u2019nun dijital olarak zaten imzaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Reuters ayr\u0131ca, \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ABD\u2019li yetkiliye dayand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 haberinde \u0130srail ile Hizbullah aras\u0131nda ate\u015fkes anla\u015fmas\u0131na var\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildirdi. Teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde XAU\/USD, 4.357 dolardaki Bollinger SMA orta band\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda; RSI 35 civar\u0131nda ve ADX 30\u2019lar\u0131n ortas\u0131nda. Diren\u00e7 4.356 ve 4.636 dolar b\u00f6lgelerinde, destek ise 4.150 ve 4.077 dolar seviyelerinde izleniyor. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m\u0131 ise arka planda destekleyici tema olmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor; D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi verileri, 2022\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 milyar dolar de\u011ferinde 1.136 ton al\u0131ma i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Bize g\u00f6re, Fed\u2019in daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fu anda ana itici g\u00fc\u00e7. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ilave bask\u0131ya i\u015faret ediyor. Bu ortam, Fed\u2019in h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 Mart zirvesinden Kas\u0131m dibine %20\u2019nin \u00fczerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2022 d\u00f6nemini and\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun %4,2 ile Fed hedefinin tam iki puan \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla, reel faizlerin y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesini ve getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n\u0131n cazibesinin azalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Tarihsel olarak alt\u0131n, reel getirilerin belirgin bi\u00e7imde pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemlerde zorlan\u0131r; bu, 2022-2023 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde de kilit unsurlardan biriydi. Bu temel bask\u0131, i\u015flem stratejilerimizi uzun pozisyonlardan uzak tutmal\u0131.<\/p>\n
Jeopolitik gerilimin azalmas\u0131\u2014\u00f6zellikle ABD-\u0130ran bar\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 ve \u0130srail-Hizbullah ate\u015fkesi\u2014alt\u0131n\u0131 destekleyen \u201cg\u00fcvenli liman primi\u201dni ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu yumu\u015fama, para politikas\u0131ndan gelen olumsuz etkinin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na kriz kaynakl\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n konulamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Daha \u00f6nce fiyatlar\u0131 4.300 dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde y\u00fcksek tutan sava\u015f riskini art\u0131k fiyatlamadan \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n
Negatif beklentimiz do\u011frultusunda, teknik analizde belirtilen 4.077 dolar destek seviyesine do\u011fru olas\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften faydalanmak i\u00e7in sat\u0131m (put) opsiyonu al\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 de\u011ferlendiriyoruz. Prim toplamak ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6n beklentisiyle pozisyon almak ad\u0131na, para d\u0131\u015f\u0131 (out-of-the-money) al\u0131m (call) opsiyonu sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 veya ay\u0131 call spread kurulumu da uygulanabilir bir strateji olabilir. Bu pozisyonlar, volatil olabilecek bir piyasada riski tan\u0131mlamam\u0131za imk\u00e2n verir.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc merkez bankas\u0131 al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in uzun vadeli bir taban olu\u015fturdu\u011funun fark\u0131nda olmal\u0131y\u0131z. D\u00fcnya Alt\u0131n Konseyi, 2022 ve 2023\u2019te her iki y\u0131lda da 1.000 tonun \u00fczerinde resmi sekt\u00f6r al\u0131m\u0131 raporlad\u0131. Bu nedenle, k\u0131sa pozisyonlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 aktif \u015fekilde y\u00f6netecek ve fiyatlar\u0131n 4.000 dolarl\u0131k psikolojik seviyeye yakla\u015fmas\u0131 halinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 negatifle\u015fme konusunda temkinli olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Alt\u0131nda y\u00f6n bulma sanc\u0131s\u0131: Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015fu ve Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de %70 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimali bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131rken, ABD-\u0130ran MoU ve ate\u015fkes haberi g\u00fcvenli liman primini siliyor; 4.150-4.077 kritik.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}