USD\/CAD Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrini korudu ve ABD Dolar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekilse de 1,4170 civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc; parite b\u00f6ylece Nisan 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesinde kald\u0131. Kanada Dolar\u0131, Statistics Canada\u2019n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131nda Perakende Sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n %0,5 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan zay\u0131flayan yurti\u00e7i verilerin bask\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131nda kald\u0131; bu art\u0131\u015f Mart\u2019taki %0,9\u2019luk y\u00fckseli\u015fin alt\u0131nda ve %0,6 beklentisinin de gerisinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Otomobil hari\u00e7 sat\u0131\u015flar %0,7 beklentisine kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k %0,1 artarken, Mart verisi %1,4\u2019ten %1,2\u2019ye revize edildi.<\/p>\n
Politika ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da para birimi \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) enflasyonu %2\u2019ye d\u00f6nd\u00fcrme hedefini yineledi ve 19 politika yap\u0131c\u0131dan dokuzu bu y\u0131l en az bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc; May\u0131s T\u00dcFE %4,2\u2019ye h\u0131zlanarak Nisan 2023\u2019ten bu yana en h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaydetti. CME FedWatch\u2019a g\u00f6re piyasalar Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatlad\u0131. DXY, daha \u00f6nce May\u0131s 2025\u2019ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan 101,13\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 100,81 civar\u0131nda seyretti. Kanada\u2019da BoC, ABD tarifelerinin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizleri destekledi\u011fini belirtirken, enerji maliyetlerinin yine de arka arkaya politika faizi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 gerektirebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti; WTI petrol\u00fc varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75,50 dolar civar\u0131nda, 5 Mart\u2019tan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Kanada Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Fed aras\u0131ndaki ayr\u0131\u015fma bizim i\u00e7in net bir f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. BoC\u2019nin bu ay\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda politika faizini %4,50\u2019ye indirmesine kar\u015f\u0131n Fed\u2019in faizi %5,50\u2019de sabit tutmas\u0131, faiz fark\u0131n\u0131 belirgin \u015fekilde ABD dolar\u0131 lehine \u00e7eviriyor. Bu politika fark\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda USD\/CAD paritesinde g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ana itici unsur konumunda.<\/p>\n
Kanada\u2019n\u0131n Nisan ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015f raporu, Kanada dolar\u0131na (loonie) y\u00f6nelik negatif g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc peki\u015ftiriyor. West Texas Intermediate\u2019\u0131n varil ba\u015f\u0131na 75,50 dolar civar\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesiyle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki gerileme de emtia ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 para birimi \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu unsurlar, BoC\u2019ye y\u0131l\u0131n ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerinde bir faiz indirimi ihtimalini de\u011ferlendirmek i\u00e7in daha fazla gerek\u00e7e sunarken, Kanada dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 yarat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ABD ekonomisi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve May\u0131s enflasyon verisi %4,2 seviyesinde geldi. Bu durum, Fed\u2019in \u015fahin duru\u015funu desteklerken piyasalar\u0131n Eyl\u00fcl\u2019e kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 %70 olarak fiyatlamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dolar lehine pozisyonlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, USD\/CAD al\u0131m (call) opsiyonlar\u0131 sat\u0131n almay\u0131 ihtiyatl\u0131 bir strateji olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, paritede 1,4200 seviyesine ve \u00fczerine do\u011fru olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften faydalanmam\u0131za imk\u00e2n tan\u0131r. Opsiyon kullan\u0131m\u0131, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc getiri potansiyeli sa\u011flarken i\u015flemde maksimum riski de tan\u0131mlar.<\/p>\n
\u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak bir sonraki Kanada enflasyon raporu kritik olacak; bir ba\u015fka zay\u0131f okuma, BoC\u2019den daha fazla faiz indirimi beklentilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilir. Tarihsel olarak 1,40-1,42 band\u0131 \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6lge oldu ve bu aral\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fczerinde kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u0131r\u0131lma daha fazla momentum al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekebilir. Bu seviyeler \u00e7evresindeki fiyat hareketini yak\u0131ndan izliyor olaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
USD\/CAD 1,4170\u2019te zirveye yak\u0131n: Kanada\u2019da zay\u0131f perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve d\u00fc\u015fen petrol CAD\u2019i bask\u0131l\u0131yor. Fed\u2019in \u015fahin tonu\/fiyatlanan Eyl\u00fcl art\u0131\u015f\u0131 dolar\u0131 destekliyor; 1,4200 \u00fczeri k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m izleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":47706,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49732","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/87"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49732"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49732\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/47706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49732"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49732"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tr-mena\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49732"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}